currencies

A unilateral exit would be a devastating event for Italy and the euro zone. Inflation would be high but bank and national solvency issues would recede. If the exit were done under these nationalistic pre-conditions of redomination, most of…

The US dollar is trading with a softer bias in what largely appears to be a consolidation. The euro held support near $1.34, sterling near $1.56 and Aussie near $0.9800. The news stream is light and corrective forces are seen in equities,…

The US can run budget deficits that help to fuel current account deficits without worry about government or national insolvency precisely because the rest of the world wants Dollars. But surely that cannot be true of any other nation.…

News that the US super committee failed to reach an agreement has done little to eclipse the negative impulses coming from Europe. Rajoy won no honeymoon in Spain despite achieving an outright majority in parliament. Spain's 10-year bond…

Brazil stands out now for being one of the few in EM to be cutting rates. We think most in EM will be cutting rates by Q1 2012 due to the deteriorating global growth outlook, and so BRL will still likely continue to enjoy a big yield…

EuroStoxx 600 is off its lows but still down 0.4%, Asia shares mostly lower; dollar pares back gains. ECB backs a weekly limit of €20bln for SMP purchases; Malaysia reports robust Q3 growth. Looking at the four key drivers of dollar…

It is beginning to look like a Greek exit is ever more likely, which means that the end of the EMU could be near. Even if exits and a break-up are not inevitable, countries should have a plan on the shelf. It is clear that Germany is…

EuroStoxx 600 is down over 1%, EZ bond yields mostly higher after Spanish and French bond auctions. Financial market stress (banking and credit) continues to intensify amid lack of progress on debt crisis. UK October retail sales saw…

Monetary union was not a good idea, even in the best of circumstances. Time to abandon the failed experiment?