currencies

Equities, most foreign currencies and commodities have rallied. It is not as if there has been a great deal of clarity over the weekend. There have been a number of press reports that have been suggestive, but some, like the report that the…

A decision tree on what the future of the euro would look like based on different policy responses

There have been several important developments over the weekend which are likely to support the euro at the start of the week, after falling for the past four consecutive weeks and recording a 7-week low before the weekend. However, I…

So here we are, with the ECB demanding deflationary austerity from the member nations in return for the limited bond buying that has been sustaining some semblance of national government solvency, not seeming to realize it can’t inflate…

Those that call for the ECB to substantially increase its sovereign bond purchases, or for Germany to agree to euro bonds, want the opposition to unilaterally disarm. They insist on putting the cart before the horse. In effect, under…

Euro continues to weaken as US markets reopen from holiday; consolidative price action Thursday is being replaced by a return to trend today, with dollar broadly stronger, EM and “risk” broadly lower. European equities are down, and futures…

The central bank intervened aggressively in September-October to limit TRY weakness, but it does not have a huge war chest like Brazil or Asia. Reserves were $84.4 bln at the end of October, down 10% from a peak of $93 bln in July. Reserves…

The weak November HSBC PMI for China has added to market bearishness. This is not the official PMI but we do note that while the HSBC measure has been below 50 for 4 of the 5 past months, the official PMI has yet to fall below 50, but it…

This morning the German government held an auction for 10-year money at just under 2 percent. The auction failed disastrously with a bid-to-cover ratio of just 1.1. The Germans wanted to issue 6 billion euros of 10-year bunds but managed to…

What was to be a subdued period in the markets is turning into a rout. There have been a number of poor developments that have sent the US dollar broadly higher and has weighed on the highly correlated risk assets, equities, emerging market…