Ukraine's sovereign CDS spread is approaching the high reached right before the Russian bailout was announced. The currency is nearing the pre-bail-out lows.
My thesis has been that China was the main driver of volatility in emerging markets and that tapering by the Federal Reserve was merely a proximate trigger. I still believe this to be the case. However, increasingly I am becoming concerned…
A few weeks ago, I wrote about the slowing of Chinese growth and the rout in commodity currencies, something that affected both developed markets and emerging markets. But the concern has become emerging markets because of political issues…
I am concerned about what is happening in the emerging markets but not alarmed. Fed tapering was a proximate trigger but not a cause. All indications are that the crisis is hitting only the most exposed and vulnerable markets and that this…
Now, when I look at financial markets going into 2014, I cannot recall ever having come across a more one-sided view than the one which prevails. The consensus view on bonds is overwhelmingly bearish while pretty much everyone is bullish on…
The Federal Reserve’s ‘taper talk’ in spring 2013 has been blamed for outflows of capital from emerging markets. This column argues that global growth prospects and uncertainty are more important drivers of emerging-market capital flows…
While the emerging markets are getting a bit of a reprieve today, it bears noting that the move to so-called safe haven assets and currencies has begun. This suggests to me that George Magnus’ warning about this emerging markets crisis must…