commodities

This chart by John Kemp of Reuters tells you that speculation played a huge role in the run up in oil prices earlier this year, hugely amplifying the underlying fundamental trend. Hat tip to the FT’s Izabella Kaminska. She is right to say…

The following note from Gulf News reinforces the concept that high population growth in the Middle East will slow the amount of oil available for export. I believe the consequences are higher prices.

This fiscal uncertainty may be enough to prevent any ratings upgrades ahead, but we do not think the situation will worsen enough to lead to downgrades. Our sovereign rating model has Russia as a very solid BBB+/Baa1/BBB+ credit compared to…

Now the market must contend with three macro bears: 1) how much and how Asia slows; 2) the Eurozone debt crisis; and 3) the slowing U.S. economy and employment/political problem. Continued volatility and 1101, 1101, 1101 on the…

What is surprising is that over the past decade, the price rises you find for 33 commodities are just about beyond the realm of possibility—2, 3, and 4 standard deviations away from trend. It is a boom without any precedent. Quite simply,…

Here is a chart of the relative performance of various asset classes over the past year. One asset class outperforms the others… by a wide margin.

When oil prices start to decline, investors and economists get worried. Oil prices in large part reflect global sentiment towards our economic future - prosperous, growing economies need more oil while slumping, shrinking economies need…

Reports that hedge funds, with almost no tolerance for short-term pain, have opened the biggest net short positions since early 2008 has driven a relatively low volume short covering rally. We even heard predictions of a 400 point drop…

According to an Ernst and Young (E&Y) report Business Risks Facing Mining and Metals 2011-2012, resource nationalism is the biggest risk companies currently face.

Two charts showing the latest trends in markets around the world