China

Given the difficulty in obtaining reliable data out of China, what other evidence do we have that the nation's economy is actually slowing? Here are four signs that seem to support the "slowdown" thesis.

Owning shares in a bank is the functional equivalent of owning a call option on the bank’s future operational earnings, and if the share price contains little intrinsic value (i.e. the value of its assets does not exceed the value of its…

My thesis has been that China was the main driver of volatility in emerging markets and that tapering by the Federal Reserve was merely a proximate trigger. I still believe this to be the case. However, increasingly I am becoming concerned…

- The big event today is the BOE's Quarterly Inflation Report and the updated economic assessment and forward guidance; sterling is outperforming - Carney indicated that the new forward guidance would look at a broader range of economic…

A few weeks ago, I wrote about the slowing of Chinese growth and the rout in commodity currencies, something that affected both developed markets and emerging markets. But the concern has become emerging markets because of political issues…

While the emerging markets are getting a bit of a reprieve today, it bears noting that the move to so-called safe haven assets and currencies has begun. This suggests to me that George Magnus’ warning about this emerging markets crisis must…

The investment climate has proven extremely difficult for investors to navigate. Fed tapering and better world growth was to lead to higher interest rates. Yet interest rates for the developed world have fallen sharply in recent weeks.…

I got a lot of feedback from my January 5 blog entry because of my argument that the implementation of the reforms proposed in the Third Plenum all but guarantees that growth rates in China will slow down. For that reason I thought it might…

George Magnus is one of the few economists that could claim to have predicted the financial crisis which began in 2007. And last night, he spoke with great concern about the budding crisis now ongoing throughout the emerging markets. I have…

As the emerging markets contagion spreads, the BRIC nations are coming under increasing pressure in the capital markets. As discussed previously Brazil and Russia are witnessing new multi-year/record lows in their currency valuations.