capital investment

My very first post on this blog was in March and it was titled "The Economy Is Definitely In Recession." Back then, this seemed like a stretch for a lot of people, but today the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), which makes the…

Stephen Roach must feel a certain sense of Schadenfreude because he has been warning since the end of the Technology Bubble that U.S. monetary policy was reckless and would end in a very bad way. The bubble reached heights few anticipated,…

While yesterday was a very positive day in U.S. markets, with the Dow up over 300 points, the real action has been in Asia. The Nikkei bottomed at a 26-year low below 7200 on October 27th. Today, it stands at 9114.60. That is a gain of…

I don't think that the market as a whole is going to go up rapidly or that another bull market will soon be underway (In fact, I think we are in a secular bear market and the inflation-adjusted lows are even further down). However, I do…

Yesterday, I said I am selectively bullish on stocks and bonds. Prices have come down s far that a number of companies are trading under book value. This suggests that investors are so fearful that they are selling anything or that they…

The United States had been living beyond its means for a very long time before the credit crisis finally hit. The truth of the matter is that U.S. monetary and fiscal policy rewarded risk-taking and leverage at the expense of prudence and…

Yesterday, I laid out some of my general thinking on the business cycle and the economy. Obviously, understanding the business cycle is important to economic forecasting and is, therefore, central to personal financial planning, general…

Now that policy makers worldwide have finally stepped in to stop the bleeding, we have had a relief rally of monumental proportions. Most global indices were deep into oversold territory, meaning that there was lots of pent-up demand for a…

Tom Toles is absolutely terrific. He captures the mood of the day so well in his cartoons, that it really puts paid to the aphorism that a picture is worth a thousand words.SourceTom Toles Cartoons, Washington Post

The last time faced a recession and a Bear Market of such viciousness was 35 years ago in the recession of 1973-1975. In the UK, it was truly horrific as inflation shot up to 25% and stocks dropped more than 90% in inflation-adjusted terms.…