business cycle

In a post via John Mauldin, Van Hoisington and Lacy Hunt echo some themes CW presented in January regarding why the NBER has waited to declare an end to recession. See "Is the recession dating committee preparing for a double…

John Hussman is out with his latest weekly and he discusses... the ECRI Leading Indicators of course. Everyone is talking about these numbers.  He is bearish, but as I have also noted the ECRI data are not yet predicting…

David Rosenberg, Chief Economist at Gluskin Scheff, has the following graph showing the dramatic drop in mortgage applications for home purchases in the most recent report from the Mortgage Bankers Association.   It is interesting to…

You hear the term "double dip recession" bandied about in the media a lot these days.  But there is no strict definition for what a double dip recession is or what it actually means to an economy. Have no fear; At the…

I agree with Feldstein that a double dip is a risk (a much larger risk than many believe).  However, this presupposes that we are in technical recovery, one I believe began last summer. Also see Stuck in the Middle from Tim Duy's…

This is a post from John Lounsbury which will cover ground on the official designation of recessions and his own designation of depressions about which he has written in the past. Previous articles in this series have discussed: The…

Last week, I wrote a post “Is the recession dating committee preparing for a double dip?” the gist of which was to question whether the NBER recession data committee thought a double dip was likely.  But an e-mail exchange I had this…

The Big Picture has picked up on what appears to be an interesting development over at the NBER’s site. It seems like they are hedging there bets on a possible double dip recession beginning in late 2010 or 2011. As you may know, the NBER…

Now that everyone is talking about green shoots and the potential for economic recovery, I thought I would run through the statistics of U.S. GDP with you.  The reason I am bringing this up is that there is a lot of confusion about what…