Britain

I have been hearing a lot of pundits talk about how the UK election changes the outlook for Brexit. And a lot of this stuff is misguided because the election doesn’t change the outlook in any discernible way. Here’s why.

In my most recent posts, I have been saying that bond markets are pricing in secular stagnation scenarios based on how shallow the yield curve is. But secular stagnation is a policy choice. And that is something I thought I should highlight…

There are several threads I want to comment on in the wake of the UK general election. And from an economic standpoint, the conclusion that follows is that austerity in the UK has now lost its appeal politically. It also means lower yields…

All negotiations are mechanisms to split the benefits of mutually acceptable outcomes. The point is to figure out if there actually is a mutually acceptable outcome, and then to get as much of the benefit for one’s side as possible. The…

Right now, everyone is parsing what the 'disastrous' May-Juncker dinner means for UK-EU negotiations and for the British general election. My immediate thought, however, was about Britain as a tax haven. Let me outline why.

Today’s news coverage is non-stop Brexit. And this is a big event. But it is the political implications which matter; the economic impact will be more muted.

British Prime Minister Theresa May will trigger her country’s exit from the EU on 29 March, a spokesperson for the Prime Minister has confirmed. Afterwards, the clock will be ticking, as the UK will have two years to wind up any…

As expected, the Bank of England left rates unchanged at a record low 0.25% in today’s Monetary Policy Committee decision. There was a dissent, however, with soon to be departing MPC member Kristin Forbes wanting a quarter-point rise.

I have long suspected that an act of Parliament would be necessary to formally trigger Article 50. In an 8-3 verdict today, the UK Supreme Court affirmed this suspicion. Theresa May cannot invoke royal prerogative for the simple reason that…

If you want to know whwere Trump is headed on trade, don’t look at China or Mexico. Don’t even look at the UK. Canada is the country to watch for a number of reasons. First of all, Canada has an existing deal with the US and Mexico under…