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Browsing Tag
Britain
The Irish Border and Magical Realism
The UK says it will leave customs union on in a year's time. But the border issue between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland remains unsolved. And while the Irish border is a particularly vexing issue, there are other near-term…
Markets unanchored?
The announcement of the US intention to impose tariffs on imported steel and aluminum on national security grounds has sent ripples through the capital markets.
Why UK long-term rates are so low
Low interest rates in the UK show how powerful expectations of future central bank policy action is on bond markets given rising inflation.
The global economy is hitting its stride right now
Most of the recent economic news from developed economies has been good. European growth, in particular, seems to have accelerated. Nothing I see in the economic data causes me worry. So I am cautiously optimistic that this upturn will last…
Brexit was a cry of financial pain and not the influence of the old
There has been much debate on the determinants of the vote for Brexit. This column uses newly released data from the Understanding Society study to examine the characteristics of individuals who were for and against Brexit. Unhappiness…
Why the downside risks of Brexit are mounting
While the UK economy did better than predicted in 2016 in the immediate aftermath of the referendum vote on leaving the European Union, growth has since stalled and inflation has risen. Beginning in January, I have been saying that risks…
How monetary policy entrenches secular stagnation
Recent statements by monetary authorities in Canada, the United States and the United Kingdom tells us rate hikes are possible in all three this year. This trio of English-speaking G7 nations is at a different phase of the monetary policy…
How Brexit makes Britain poorer, forcing Carney to stay his hand
The risk in the UK is an inflationary recession. For now, Mark Carney is resisting a rate hike. But how long will the Bank of England hold out? And how long can British consumers keep spending if real wages are falling? Two things would…
Could the UK be headed for an inflationary recession?
The Bank of England kept its key policy rate unchanged at a record low 0.25% . Three dissents show how a weak currency and rising inflation are making it harder to keep rates low. The worst case scenario is an inflationary recession, which…