Brazil

BRL is one of the worst EM performers today, and continues a string of underperformance (-10.8% vs. USD) that began with the unexpected 50 bp rate cut August 31. Since then, only HUF has done worse at -11.5%. It’s really a confluence of…

BoE holds steady, with markets awaiting the ECB press conference; European stocks firmer. Important speeches from Bernanke and Obama; Bernanke likely to signal potential measures. Brazil swaps and futures market pricing in significant rate…

Frederick Searby says that Brazil has the opposite problem of the developed economies in that it is dealing with overheating and inflation while the developed economies have a serious deflationary undertow. His view is that if there is a…

We’re watching an interesting development in Brazilian equities. Over the past five trading sessions the BOVESPA has doubled the performance of the S&P500, up 12 percent vs 6 percent

It is very clear that Brazil is moving further and further away from the orthodox model due to its obsession with the strong real. While the IMF said today in its Article IV discussions with Brazil that capital controls are an “appropriate”…

Safe havens continue trade on the back foot as risk appetite resurgences; European stocks up over 1%. Euro trades above $1.42 ahead of tomorrow’s summit; EZ summit likely to address two key issues. Brazil’s central bank expected to deliver…

Dollar pares recent gains as EZ struggles to control crisis; Global stocks boosted by Asian data reports. North American session likely to be dominated by Bernanke; further easing unlikely but still possible. Chinese economic narrative…

Dollar is little changed ahead of today’s ECB meeting and ADP report; stocks/commodities are steady. BoE holds steady, ECB is expected to deliver a 25bps rate hike; market focus likely to be on comments. Brazilian policy makers focus on…

I am concerned that the emerging markets have overheated and are now reversing direction quickly. Policy rates are still low when adjusted for inflation. But, given the economic weakness now manifest across North America and Europe, the…

Dollar mixed vs. majors ahead of ECB decision; signal for 25 bp hike in July widely expected. Negotiations on second Greece aid program continue; talks could drag on for weeks. NZD outperforms on hawkish RBNZ statement, AUD underperforms on…