bonds

The next phase in Italian politics has not been much of a market factor. Expect this phase to endure as the formation of a government should take a long time.

Quick post here. I caught a tweet by Bloomberg's Lisa Abramowicz this morning noting that the yield curve was at its flattest since the Great Financial Crisis. Looking at the data, I noted that the 10-year bond is trading at only 49 basis…

While the pundits are talking trade wars, Chinese officials are taking the latest US provocations in stride. China's emergence on the world stage was always going to be disruptive. China is not defenseless in a trade war, but many…

In his most recent interview, Jeffrey Gundlach says he sees stocks down for the year. He also outlines at what point he sees a bond bear market. Most ominously, however, he describes the Fed as being on autopilot, with this driving the…

In March, signs of inflation have subsided and bonds have rallied. Maybe the bond bear market Gross and Dalio foresee isn't actually going to happen. A lot of the future price action hinges on future monetary policy.

The US Treasury yield curve has resumed the flattening that caused bond markets worry last Fall. This is a negative signal for future growth. Curve flattening signals Fed tightening. With the primary risk overtightening. I expect a…

It seems like just a week ago, we were talking about synchronized global growth. Suddenly signs of deceleration are everywhere. And bond markets are feeling it. I don't see the economy falling out of bed though, barring an exogenous shock.…

Right now, many economists are talking about US growth through 2019 and a 3% unemployment rate. Goldman Sachs chief economist Jan Hatzius is one of them. The fly in the ointment is the Fed and its accelerated rate hike timetable.

In the next recession, muni bonds will be hit and local governments will default. The Fed will use Section 13(3) of the Federal Reserve Act to buy municipal paper. And if they need even more authority, Congress will grant it.

Powell's testimony suggests the Fed will be more hawkish than the market expects. I believe long-term interest rates will grind higher. Look at the steepness of the yield curve for signs of over-tightening.