bonds

While everyone was focussing on the relief rally in stocks yesterday, the US treasury yield curve inverted for the first time in over a decade. This is a negative signpost in a world in which the Federal Reserve is almost certain to raise…

I am now stuffed with Turkey after days sitting around eating for the Thanksgiving holiday here in the US. Today is Black Friday, the biggest day of the year for retail sales. And so it makes sense to write this newsletter post today.  I…

The bear steepening from late August was a head fake. We went from about 18 basis points between the 2- and the 10-year on August 27th to 34 on October 10th. That's when the equities market threw a tizzy as the ten-year reached the 3.25%…

I don't have a daily post for you today. So, in lieu of a daily, I wanted to make some more general comments about interest rates that I have been making in my market commentary pieces. The accelerated hike timetable In February, I wrote a…

In contrast to the last month, it was a good day for the markets today. So I want to do a mini-recap. All eyes on Apple First up: Apple is slated to report tomorrow afternoon after the closing bell. Expectations for their earnings report…

Flight to liquidity reminiscent of January and February As the equities market sells off, it's worth noting how much the sovereign bond market is rallying at the same time. I am seeing the 10-year US Treasury bond quoted at 3.079%, well…

As the Dow Jones Industrial Average flirts with a 500 point decline, it's worth mentioning the flight to safety going on in the global bond markets. We are seeing major moves into sovereign bonds across currency areas. That has the US…

This is how Fed tightening regimes work We're bracing for another big sell off in equities today. I don't know if you saw my piece yesterday on market groups breaking below 50- and 200-day daily moving averages. I said "I don’t have a view…

Italy's 10-year sovereign bond yield has risen from 1.78% at end of April and prior to the general election to 3.66%. That's the highest since the beginning of 2014 and the yield is still rising. Domestic banks and Italian life insurers are…

Back in late February, I told you there was a new hawkish tone coming from the Fed that I believed meant an acceleration of the Fed's rate hike timetable. When Lael Branard got onboard, I knew a regime shift was at hand. This has proved to…