austerity

As I write this the lower house of Dutch Parliament is debating what and where to cut in order to get their budget under the 3% hurdle as quickly as possible.

Collapsing credit demand ultimately leads to a loss of banking capital, which is the exact opposite of what the LTRO program was set up to achieve. Interestingly, as the charts below show, banks seem to think that there will be a slowing of…

It looks like the EU has finally figured out that austerity is anti-growth and that in the EU context this is leading to debt deflation. The word on the street is that the EU is prepared to temporarily relax the 3% Maastricht hurdle. This…

ECB President Draghi's support for a growth pact for Europe is important, perhaps under-appreciated by the market. This is not simply a tactic to deflect attention from the IMF's call that the ECB ease monetary policy further. The ever…

Seven weeks of government negotiations in the Netherlands to agree on new austerity measures failed on Saturday suggesting the German-led program for Europe is about to take head of another government and this is on the eve of the first…

The following is a March 1932 speech by then US President Herbert Hoover about the growing US deficit. As I indicated in previous posts on Hoover's travails, the President earnestly wanted to balance the budget (see Herbert Hoover: White…

This week's weekly commentary on markets and the economy features Spain. In my view, the potential for downside economic and portfolio risk has increased markedly as we realise that Spain is at risk and there is no plan B in the euro zone.…

"The anger that prompted Christoulas to take his own life in Syntagma Square in view of the Greek parliament is shared by much of the middle-class and low-income Greeks who have carried a disproportionate burden of the stringent tax…

The more Spanish officials talk about the budget the less credible it seems. The 10-year yield fell 11 bp on Friday when the budget first presented before the weekend. Now as more detail emerge as it goes to parliament, 10-year yields are…

Banks, households and the government sector are all engaged in deleveraging. It is difficult to see where aggregate demand will come from. Spanish exports in January were up about 4% from a year ago, but the pace appears to be leveling off.…