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Browsing Category
Monetary System
Turning Japanese and understanding the consequence of policy half-measures
This is another post I originally ran on Naked Capitalism last month. As you know, I have turned more positive about the potential for a cyclical economic recovery. However, I am unchanged regarding much of the sentiment expressed in this…
Green Shoots over Thin Ice
John Hussman has a nice piece out named "Green Shoots over Thin Ice. (hat tip Scott)" Below is the core of his argument regarding the recent rally in stocks and the free gift to bondholders. I have bolded parts of the original to add…
The Fake Recovery
This April 2009 post is holding up well and still describes my view on the economic situation in the United States. I am much more confident that the cyclical forces I described here are leading to a recovery. The question now has to do…
Wells profit forecast is a clear bullish sign
I am still away on Holiday in Mexico but have been checking the news and was not surprised to learn about the recent Wells Fargo announcement. I am coming off the fence here and looking for a bullish outcome on financial services.
The…
Mike Mayo: writedowns worse than the Great Depression
Despite the fact that I can envisage a cyclical upturn this Winter, the menace of bank writedowns is ever-present. One analyst who has been particularly prescient on warning on this front is Mike Mayo, now working at Calyon. Below David…
Spain’s savings banks may have 40 billion in writedowns
We should consider Spain one of the four original bubble markets where residential property markets soared to ridiculous levels during the housing bubble. The bubble has now popped and those countries, the U.K., the U.S., Ireland and…
A few comments about mark-to-market
Because I received a message via e-mail that my previous post on mark-to-market was misleading, I thought I would clarify what is happening with FAS 157 and provide some good links.
The long and short of the rule is it gives more…
The Cult of Zero Imbalances
Marshall Auerback here with a few thoughts about this economic cycle, external imbalances, fiscal stimulus, and current account deficits.
This is not the Great Depression. We are going to have "muddle through" here precisely because we…
U.S. banks’ derivatives exposure explodes to $200 trillion
The OCC’s Quarterly Report on Bank Trading and Derivatives Activities
for the Fourth Quarter 2008 is out. And derivatives exposure is way up. U.S. commercial banks now have a massive $200 trillion in derivatives exposure, which is 14x U.S.…
More credit card writedowns are coming
Of course you know I think credit cards are going to produce a tsunami of writedowns, right? Things are looking more and more like that tsunami is right around the corner:
Credit card writedowns soared to record levels in February,…