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Sober Look 181 posts 0 comments

Sober Look is a no-hype financial markets/macro blog that typically relies on data analysis, primary sources, and original materials. We keep it concise, to the point, with no self-promoting nonsense, and no long-winded opinions. If you are looking for Armageddon predictions or conspiracy theories, you will be thoroughly disappointed. Topics include financial markets, banking, asset management, risk management, derivatives, global economy, policy, and regulation, with the emphasis on finance education. Follow him on his blog or twitter.

Political Economy

Sneaking a pension provision into a US transportation bill

Sober Look Jun 18, 2012

The US pension bailout fund PBGC is already stretched and may require more taxpayer money. Now it would be taking over pensions that will be even more underfunded, with asset values way below the present value of the liabilities. And more…

Markets

German sovereign CDS widening is a troubling sign

Sober Look Jun 12, 2012

The focus recently has all been on the Eurozone periphery, but signs of strained financial conditions are now showing up in German sovereign CDS. The spread has been steadily rising.

Markets

The US TIPS curve has become inverted

Sober Look Jun 6, 2012

The US inflation indexed treasury curve (TIPS curve) has inverted sharply in the short end. The one-year TIPS yield went from negative 2.5% to zero in a matter of four months. The one-year treasury (nominal) yield on the other hand has held…

Markets

Economists are becoming concerned about Canada’s housing market

Sober Look Jun 1, 2012

Canadian home prices have been growing quite rapidly, particularly as compared to the US. Some may argue that this is justified because Canada's unemployment rate is lower. 8.1% in the US vs. 7.4% in Canada. Is that enough to justify such a…

Economy

Chart of the Day: Eurozone retail sector’s sharp contraction

Sober Look Apr 30, 2012

The Eurozone is experiencing a sharp contraction in the retail sector.

Economy

OPEC: near record production, spare capacity a concern

Sober Look Apr 26, 2012

In addition to the hole left by the Iran sanctions, the Saudis are pressured to pump more in order to meet their own rising domestic demand. This is putting strains on OPEC's spare capacity.

Economy

Japan’s fuel imports driving trade deficit to record

Sober Look Apr 25, 2012

As predicted earlier this year, Japan continues to struggle with its energy needs. The chart below shows the recent trend in Japan's imports of residual fuel oil. These fuel imports are quickly translating into a rising trade deficit.

Economy

Chart of the day: year over year growth in Greek deposits of non-financial customers

Sober Look Apr 25, 2012

The Greek private sector can generally only rely on the Greek banking system for credit. At the same time the Greek private sector is moving liquidity out of the country, dramatically shrinking the availability of credit.

Markets

Chart of the day: Life insurers won’t meet nominal return targets

Sober Look Apr 24, 2012

JPMorgan recently performed a study on the composition of portfolios managed by life insurance companies. The study looked at the top 20 life insurance firms using their regulatory filings. These are the portfolios set up to support…

Economy

Judging by Ireland, Spanish banks to take a lot more credit writedowns

Sober Look Apr 23, 2012

Ireland dealt fairly quickly with its property market bubble by effectively and forcefully nationalizing and recapitalizing its banking sector. They clearly still have a serious problem on their hands, but the nation has been aggressive in…