Las Ciudades Fantasmas

Thanks to Iza Kaminska for pointing me to the video below of row after row of incomplete homes in Spanish host towns, las ciudades fantasmas. Spain has the same problem of overbuilding that the U.S. had during its bubble days. Now that…

The QE2 trade is now officially over

The Fed could announce a federal funds target of 3% but the tsunami of excess reserves now out there swamps any conceivable demand, so the federal funds rate would be guaranteed to remain stuck at zero. The target would be meaningless.…

Bond Market Vigilantes

This is from the blog Political Irony (hat tip UMKC). Higher consumer price inflation than we see now will probably result in demand destruction and recession before the Fed reacts. The slack in the economy would mean this becomes a…

Thoughts on Austerity

Yesterday, Paul Krugman wrote: Portugal’s government has just fallen in a dispute over austerity proposals. Irish bond yields have topped 10 percent for the first time. And the British government has just marked its economic forecast…

Oil: Where is the spare capacity?

This morning's note from UBS' Andy Lees addresses something about which I am sceptical regarding the escalating Libyan conflict: global spare oil capacity. I am in the same camp with Jeremy Grantham. Call it peak resources, peak oil,…

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