Contagion: Sovereign Credit Default Swap Wideners – Guess Who?
This chart from Credit Market Analysis shows the sovereign bonds which had the greatest percentage increase in their default probability over a 5-year horizon.
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News Links: Italy, Europe, and Red Brigade terror
Italy, Europe, and Red Brigade terror – Telegraph Blogs
Italy’s labour minister Maurizio Sacconi has just warned that a rushed shake-up of the labour market – as demanded by the EU – risks setting off a fresh cycle of…
This is what Italy’s bond yields look like after Greek referendum contagion
Bonds in Italy are marching higher amid rumours of ECB intervention. Yesterday they breached 6.15%. Now they are above 6.30% and going higher still. Belgium and Spain have also been infected with Greek referendum contagion.
China PMI drops to lowest in 32 months
50.4 is the lowest number since early 2009, during the depths of the recession. So this number, shades above contraction, is a big deal. In fact, the sub-index for new (export) orders index is contracting, meaning slowing economic growth in…
Greek referendum could mean CDS Greek default trigger
Given Greek sentiment, in all likelihood, a referendum vote for the bailout agreement will fail. The question is “what then?” I would anticipate that, at a minimum, an an actual default which triggers credit default swaps with higher…
Bill Black on potential Bank of America derivatives losses
In the video below, Bill Black discusses the issues he raised in a recent post about Bank of America’s accounting activities. At issue is the effect of its shift of assets from the holding company to its FDIC-insured subsidiary. In total,…
Chart of the Day: Operation BRIC Twist
Operation Twist didn't work in Russia, India or Brazil and it's not working in the US.
Daniel Kahneman on Investing: Luck Vs. Skill
I have Daniel Kahnemann’s book Thinking Fast and Slow, but have yet to read it. Judging from the positive reviews and his past work, it sounds like it should be pretty good. Kahnemann was on CNBC last week discussing some themes from his…
Chicago PMI at 58.4 tells a mixed message
In terms of business activity, the Chicago ISM highlighted the fact that order backlogs recovered from two months of contraction and that employment was the highest in six months, even while new orders erased half of September’s gain.
As…
News Links: The two halves of the eurozone are locked in a broken marriage
The two halves of the eurozone are locked in a broken marriage - Telegraph
One by one, the democracies of Southern Europe are being broken on the wheel of monetary union.
tags: europe greece austerity…