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Some thoughts on the Fed’s QE stance
A week ago I wrote that I believed QE will end this year after tapering off in June. I stand by this stance. However, we have heard from three Fed officials in the interim and I wanted to pass on what they are saying to gauge how likely it…
On Japan’s widowmaker trade and Reinhart and Rogoff
I was on the Daily Ticker with Lauren Lyster talking about Japan yesterday. My view is that there is no material negative change in Japan's sovereign debt outlook nor will there be in the medium term because of Abenomics. The video is at…
Chart of the day: Germany’s shrinking working-age population
I caught this FT graphic via David Wessel yesterday. It shows you that while the labour force in the Euro Zone as a whole generally continues to grow, the labour force in Germany has shrunk. During the euro era, Germany's labour force…
Merkel: Germany ‘too weak to withstand more stimulus’
I have been saying for some time now that Germany is concerned about its own public finances. So it is good to see that Angela Merkel is now confirming this. According to the Telegraph, Merkel believes that Germany simply doesn't have the…
On the crash in gold
Gold is breaking down in a big way right now. We are well into bear market territory here.
Marc Faber thinks it could fall to $1300... before rebounding. A number of noted goldbugs are talking about a Fed conspiracy. So what is going on…
Wealth confiscation in Europe and Japan
In all of the bailed out nations of the euro zone, sovereign default is the worry as this can create a cascading knock-on effect like the failure of Creditanstalt in 1931 that ushered in the banking crisis of the Great Depression. We see…