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Do the US GDP figures point to a bullish outlook in the global economy?
I am not a bull, largely because I have concerns about the long-term sustainability of today’s policy mix in Europe and the United States and the rise in equity multiples. But it is undeniable that we are seeing a more bullish outlook for…
The fragile recovery and the rise in asset prices
Now that Europe is on the mend, the initial phase of the financial crisis is clearly in the rearview mirror. Equity prices, bonds prices and house prices have risen by leaps and bounds even before this economic recovery was clear. Yet, the…
Improved macro data as year heads into final stretch
The news flow over the Thanksgiving weekend and starting this week has been positive. I believe the data support continued global recovery, even in Europe where the data have been the weakest as the latest batch of economic data show…
More thoughts on the global recovery
My view since the beginning of the financial crisis has been that policy levers to alleviate this private debt stress are limited, and that this limitation will be felt in defaults, writedowns and deleveraging of a magnitude that is larger…