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Policy-induced market overvaluation is building, will end badly
It is now patently clear that US equity and corporate bond markets are overvalued. Much of the overvaluation has to do with low discount rates and the risk-on signal easy Fed policy has sent investors for over five years. Yet again, signs…
News: 2014-03-24
I ran a bit late this morning. SO there will be no daily commentary until tomorrow. It is a slow news day, in any event. I think the links here capture the essence of what's happening.
Europe
BBC News - French business output grew in…
Economic and market themes: 2014-03-21
Sanctions because of the Crimean crisis have had less economic impact than private portfolio preference shifts. However, as Ukraine moves into the EU sphere, further actions against Ukraine could be more far-reaching.
China has moved…
News: 2014-03-21
Ukraine
BoE: Ukraine tensions could trigger 'material increase' in commodity prices – Telegraph
If this tit-for-tatting escalates… | FT Alphaville
"France looks mighty exposed, with $51bn potentially at risk. But that’s in absolute…
The move from QE to forward guidance has always been about normalizing policy
So finally we get to see what the Yellen Fed is all about. And it is not as dovish as people thought it would be.While the noises Yellen made concerning the jobs market came across as dovish, behind the scenes a more hawkish tone has…
Grokking upside scenarios in Crimea
As Ukraine prepares to evacuate its military from Crimea, I believe we should look at upside scenarios in Ukraine. Most of my commentary to date has been focused on risk assessment. But the pullout of Ukraine from Crimea is the first major…