News: 2013-12-10
Markets
Treasury Yield Forecast for 2014 Climb to Survey High of 3.41% – Bloomberg
Big Idea 2014: Investing Will Completely Change | LinkedIn
“Baby Boomers are marching into retirement, thereby beginning to liquidate their investments; thus the profile of the “typical investor” is changing. For example, although women are still referred to as a “niche market” by the wealth management industry (yes, seriously), it is estimated that by 2030, they will control some two-thirds of US wealth. And at the same time, Millennials are entering their prime earning (and thus investing) years.
The changes driven by these demographic shifts will be far-reaching.”
A Short History of Long-Term Trends
Thoughts by Marc Faber on why crises happen
2-10 Spread Hits Two-Year High Crossing Wall Street
World’s biggest investor BlackRock says US rally nearing exhaustion – Telegraph
Housing
Pay down mortgage debt or invest in shares? – Telegraph
Home buying will be out of reach for an ‘entire generation’ – Telegraph
Jump in mortgage borrowing a good for US consumption – FT.com
“After reducing debt for 21 consecutive quarters, US households increased their net mortgage liabilities at an annualised rate of 0.9 per cent in the third quarter of 2013, according to new data from the US Federal Reserve.”
Swedish Housing Surges to Unsafe Value as Debt Soars – Bloomberg
Skyrocketing rents hit ‘crisis’ levels – NBC News.com
Home Buyers Are Scarce, So Renters Take Their Place – NYTimes.com
America’s rental crisis | Felix Salmon
UK house price growth expectations hit 14-year high in Nov – RICS | Reuters
“Illusion i Sverige omlångsiktigt stigande priser” | SvD
Goda skäl till oro överShillers varning | Sverige | SvD
More analysis here of how Shiller’s bubble warning is worrying the Swedes.
De tror på en svensk bostadsbubbla | Bostad | SvD
Good to see a major Swedish daily covering this news. Svenska Dagbladet is talking here with Robert Shiller about his comments on Sweden having a housing bubble. The article here is seven pages long and also has thoughts from others like Nouriel Roubini. MUST READ. In Swedish
Economy
Pimco’s El-Erian Sees Faster Global Growth as U.S. Offsets China – Bloomberg
McKinsey, Morgan Stanley and BlackRock love infrastructure investing
Cheer Up: World Growth Is Accelerating – Bloomberg
Fed
A Fed Dissident on Policy and Transparency – NYTimes.com
Fed on track to taper in March; chances of December or January rise: Reuters poll | Reuters
Bullard Offers Up The Tiny Taper – Tim Duy’s Fed Watch
Low inflation is becoming a major headache | Gavyn Davies
Fed’s Fisher: The Time to Taper Fed Bond Buys Is Now – Real Time Economics – WSJ
Fed’s Lacker: Risks of further bond-buying outweigh benefits | Reuters
Central banks lose $400bn in gold rout – Telegraph
Fed could do ‘small’ QE3 taper to recognize job gains: Bullard | Reuters
“While he would prefer a Fed promise not to increase rates unless inflation rises above a certain level, say 1.5 percent, a so-called inflation floor has not won widespread support among his colleagues.”
Money printing, search for yield and the mirage of financial stability – Telegraph
North America
US sells remaining General Motors shares at a loss of $10.5bn | Business | theguardian.com
Robert Reich (JP Morgan Chase, the Foreign Corrupt Practice Act, and the Corruption of America)
It Takes A McDonald’s Worker 4 Months To Earn What The CEO Gets In An Hour
Rule That Curbs Bank Risk-Taking Nears Approval – NYTimes.com
Consumer confidence nears year high as Canadians put faith in rising house prices | Financial Post
Household net worth hits record high in third quarter | Reuters
Europe
Ireland ‘unlikely’ to get ESM help to recover cost of bailing out our banks – Independent.ie
Flat 3Q Italian GDP signals recession may be over – MarketWatch
Note the fine print:
“Measured in terms of expenditures, Italian GDP was lifted by inventories even as fixed business investments fell by 0.6% from the previous quarter and household spending declined by 0.2%, according to Istat’s data. “
Industriproduktionen faller | Näringsliv | SvD
Sweden is slowing. Industrial production in October fell 1.7% compared to September and 5.0% compared to the year ago level. This was worse than expected. The results were dominated by the electronics and chemical sectors. So the time series has some volatility. Nonetheless, the heady growth days are over.
ekathimerini.com | Greek industrial production dips 5.2 pct in October, year-on-year
El precio de las casas modera su caída, pero baja el 38,5% desde máximos | Economía | Cinco Días
The fall in home prices in Spain is slowing but the decline from the peak is now 38.5%.
Reallöhne: Verluste werden zur Norm – KURIER.at
This article points out that real wages have stagnated or declined in Europe since 2010. In Austria, they were up only 0.1% this year
China
Strong China retail data defy predictions of slowdown – FT.com
Jedes fünfte verkaufte Auto ist ein deutsches: Chinas Automarkt boomt – n-tv.de
The German carmakers are cleaning up in China. We are seeing record figures there, with the Germans taking one fifth of the market. The sales have increased seven-fold since 2005. That’s huge. It also explains why the Germans have shifted focus to China and away from the periphery.
Yuan auf Rekordhoch: Euro zeigt weiter Stärke – n-tv.de
China’s currency is going from strength to strength. It is now at a new high to the USD of 6.1114. Part of this is the return differential; Chinese 1-year paper returns 4.06% while for example the comparable South Korean paper returns only 2.6%. As a result, Chinese banks have bought 2.1 trillion yuan since the beginning of the year. The currency is up 2.7% since the beginning of the year.
Technology
How the Bitcoin protocol actually works | DDI
CyanogenMod rolls out encrypted text messaging by default | The Verge
AT&T and T-Mobile received 600,000 government requests for user data last year | The Verge
Snowden document shows Canada set up spy posts for NSA – Politics – CBC News
Fred Wilson On Bitcoin, Unbundling, Data Leakage And Health Care | TechCrunch
Demokratie im digitalen Zeitalter: Der Aufruf der Schriftsteller – Autoren gegen Überwachung – FAZ
Here in one of Germany’s major papers, 500 authors from all over the world signed a petition protesting NSA spying.
Google bus blocked in San Francisco gentrification protest | Reuters
Cops and Feds Routinely ‘Dump’ Cell Towers to Track Everyone Nearby | Threat Level | Wired.com
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