News: 2013-12-09
Markets
“Our estimate of prospective 10-year nominal S&P 500 total returns has eroded to just 2.3%, suggesting that equities are likely to underperform even the relatively low returns available on 10-year Treasury bonds in the coming decade. Those estimates have had a correlation of over 85% with subsequent 10-year S&P 500 total returns since 1940, and a higher correlation with subsequent returns more recently.”
US and China in reflexive pursuit of growth – FT.com
“Toxoplasmosis does strange things to mice. It compromises their immune system and makes them lose their fear of cats. I wish I had their disregard for safety. If they were fund managers they would have had a fantastic year: those in my industry who have ignored the fundamentals of the market – the smell of the cat – and just been long have outperformed.
The rest of us, held back by some knowledge of valuations and history, have not.”
Confessions of an Institutional Investor | The Big Picture
Hedge Funds Trail Stocks by the Widest Margin Since 2005 – Bloomberg
How Do You Define a Bubble? (And Are We in One Now?) – Bloomberg
Gold Bearish Outlook Extended as Price Nears $1,200: Commodities – Bloomberg
Someone Bought a Tesla Model S With Bitcoins | Autopia | Wired.com
Bitcoin hype worse than ‘tulip mania’, says Dutch central banker | Technology | theguardian.com
Greenspan Says Bitcoin a Bubble Without Intrinsic Currency Value – Bloomberg
Housing
Shiller’s and Roubini’s fears of Swedish housing bubble are justified | LARS P. SYLL
Jumbos Surge 34% With Record ARMs Belying ’08 Anxiety: Mortgages – Bloomberg
Global house prices hit new peak, led by emerging Asia | Reuters
BBC News – UK house prices continue to rise rapidly, says Halifax
House prices show biggest annual leap in six years, says Halifax | Money | theguardian.com
Economics
When economic theory fails the maths exam | Business Spectator
Edmund Phelps : Nobelpreisträger lobt das Schweizer Vorbild – Nachrichten Wirtschaft – DIE WELT
Long interview with Edmund Phelps on his political philosophy of economics
Banks
Deutsche Bank : Anshu Jain ist plötzlich der große Gewinner – Nachrichten Wirtschaft – DIE WELT
The German public is dead against the “Anglo Saxon” style culture developed at banks Deutsche Bank which has been a chief liability in terms of risk.
Ex-Goldman Trader Sentenced to 9 Months in Prison – NYTimes.com
How to commit fraud and get away with it: A Guide for CEOs at macroresilience
Europe
“Try telling people in countries that are still in depression, with per capita GDP below pre-2008 levels and youth unemployment at 50% that the austerity medicine has worked”
Living standards to be lower in 2015 than in 2010, IFS warns | Business | theguardian.com
More than half of people living in poverty have a job – Telegraph
Fixed-rate bond savers face ‘brick wall of disappointment’ | Money | theguardian.com
Britain announces sharp upward revision to growth forecasts | Reuters
Sweden Ready to Force Debt Curbs If Loan Growth Doesn’t Slow – Bloomberg
Wirtschaftskrise: “Frankreich braucht einen Schröder” | ZEIT ONLINE
The French business roundtable leader Perre Gattaz wants reforms in German labor markets like the ones Germany got under Gerhard Schröder.
Ukraine Protesters Smash Lenin’s Statue in Kiev
German Exports Reach Record High in October But Imports Also Increase – SPIEGEL ONLINE
ekathimerini.com | Greek recession slowed again in Q3 as economy shrank by 3 pct
North America
Macro and Other Market Musings: The Great Macroeconomic Experiment of 2013
Stronger and Sustainable, but… – Tim Duy’s Fed Watch
Taper Defied With Bond Spreads Least Since ’07: Credit Markets – Bloomberg
“Corporate-bond buyers are accepting the lowest relative yields since before the 2008 financial crisis”
Consumer credit grows more than expected in October | Reuters
Coalition of Liberals Strikes Back at Criticism From Centrist Democrats – NYTimes.com
Gross Says Job Gains Mean 50% Odds of December Fed Taper – Bloomberg
Canada added 21,600 jobs last month. Now for the bad news | Toronto Star
Asia
BBC News – Japan’s economic growth revised down
Japan May Soon Start Losing Wealth – Real Time Economics – WSJ
China November inflation slows to 3 percent, eases tightening fear | Reuters
China Trade Surplus Hits Four-Year High as Exports Rise – Bloomberg
China Steps Toward Market-Based Interest Rates – WSJ.com
China’s import growth weakens | South China Morning Post
Emerging Markets
Uruguay blazes trail as cannabis looks set to become legal – FT.com
Technology
Tech giants unite against NSA | TheHill
Telekom-Chef sieht Demokratie gefährdet « WirtschaftsBlatt.at
Here the head of Deutsche Telekom says that the NSA spying is a threat to democracy.
Germany’s DHL delivers medicine by drone — Tech News and Analysis
Why digital storage is the next hockey stick market in tech — Tech News and Analysis
Google Nexus 5 (Unlocked) Review & Rating | PCMag.com
Google Squeezes Margins on Moto G Phone – WSJ.com
“Research firm TechInsights estimates that the components inside a Moto G with 16 gigabytes of memory cost $123. Motorola charges $199 for the device in the U.S. without a wireless contract.”
NSA Wrongly Says Warrantless Mobile-Phone Location Tracking Is Legal | Threat Level | Wired.com
Skype’s Suspicious Absence From Microsoft’s Anti-NSA Promises | TechCrunch
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