Links: 2013-07-17
Central Banks
Some on Fed Want Thresholds Turned Into Triggers – Real Time Economics – WSJ
Fed’s George calls for end to bond-buying in first-half 2014 | Reuters
Hilsenrath: What Bernanke Means – Real Time Economics – WSJ
Bhidé and Phelps: Central Banking Needs Rethinking – WSJ.com
This piece by Bhidé and Phelps will be widely read. It is very much against current central bank QE policies.
Banks
Deutsche Bank Opaque Loans From Brazil to Italy Hide Risk – Bloomberg
A Brief Refresher on Glass Steagall | The Big Picture
“As I described in the Washington Post last year (Repeal of Glass-Steagall: Not a cause, but a multiplier) the shortage of lifeboats on the Titanic did not cause it to sink, but it sure as hell raised the body count. The repeal of Glass Steagall had a similar effect. It did not cause the crisis, but lack of a firebreak allowed it to jump easily form Wall Street to Main Street.”
The Center of the Universe » Blog Archive » Bank earnings as a demand leakage
United States
Real Wages Still Below June 2009 Level – Real Time Economics – WSJ
Industrial Output in U.S. Rises by Most in Four Months – Bloomberg
BBC News – US inflation rises to 1.8% in June
As Consumer-Discretionary Stocks Surge, Bears Lurk – WSJ.com
What is the long-term impact of incarcerating juveniles? | vox
Note the chart showing incarceration rates for juveniles across several developed economies. Must-see
Canada
Toronto Condo Market in Goldilocks Phase – Canada Real Time – WSJ
Do Canadian banks measure up on leverage? | Financial Post
Europe
Euro-Zone Exports Slump in May – WSJ.com
German Exporters Shift Focus to U.S. – WSJ.com
Germany had exported to the periphery before they went into a tailspin. Then they turned to China. Now China is in the doldrums. So it’s on to the US. This won’t work. The export-based model is flawed. Remember, though, this gives the US leverage in the NSA scandal.
Germany Keeps Whistling as Iberia Starts to Burn « naked capitalism
I don’t know what to make of this yet since I have been positive about the forward momentum in the eurozone. On the one hand, Greece is a mess and Portugal is headed that way. On the other hand, I am not a doomsayer and think the eurozone will pull through eventually minus perhaps one or two members. The human toll will be huge.
Inflation reaches 14-month high at 2.9pc – Telegraph
Emerging Markets
Bad loans cast long shadow over Indian banks – FT.com
Key China liquidity measure falls to one-year low | South China Morning Post
When does a Chinese growth deceleration become a crisis? | FT Alphaville
From last week, but notable
TMT
As Its Ratings Slide, The Confessions Of A Recovering CNBC Pundit – Forbes
HEARD ON THE STREET: Leap of Fate for T-Mobile and Dish – WSJ.com
AT&T’s Next phone upgrade plans are a huge ripoff | The Verge
“AT&T’s Next phone upgrade plans are a huge ripoff”
T-Mobile: AT&T’s New Plans Make You Pay For the Same Phone Twice – Ina Fried – Mobile – AllThingsD
How interest in AT&T’s Next plan could boost new and old iPhone sales — Tech News and Analysis
I don’t see how these plans can do anything but pull forward demand but here’s another take that is bullish on Apple where I see black.
Apple predicted to beat market consensus with 29M iPhones shipped in June quarter
Apple’s iPhone dumped by ‘big three’ Russian carriers over subsidies, marketing costs
Smartphone Upgrades Slow as ‘Wow’ Factor Fades – WSJ.com
This is a VERY important trend to note. I have been saying that the number of new smartphone users is slowing, which makes handset makers dependent on the upgrade cycle. Here we see that this upgrade cycle is slowing as well. And that means margin pressure, especially as the new converts are holdouts on feature phones who are price sensitive. Revenue growth in the mobile market has peaked in my view.
Lumia 625 leaks with LTE and Nokia’s biggest screen ever | The Verge
Yahoo’s Revenue Falls Again, Lowers Guidance – WSJ.com
Yahoo trims 2013 sales outlook as CEO Mayer’s effort falters | Reuters
WhatsApp for iPhone moves to $0.99 annual subscription model | The Verge
I don’t have a view on this yet but it is significant that they have moved to a paid (subscription) revenue model – and only on the iPhone.
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