Links: 2013-07-17

Central Banks

Some on Fed Want Thresholds Turned Into Triggers – Real Time Economics – WSJ 

Fed’s George calls for end to bond-buying in first-half 2014 | Reuters

Hilsenrath: What Bernanke Means – Real Time Economics – WSJ

Bhidé and Phelps: Central Banking Needs Rethinking –

This piece by Bhidé and Phelps will be widely read. It is very much against current central bank QE policies.


Deutsche Bank Opaque Loans From Brazil to Italy Hide Risk – Bloomberg

A Brief Refresher on Glass Steagall | The Big Picture

“As I described in the Washington Post last year (Repeal of Glass-Steagall: Not a cause, but a multiplier) the shortage of lifeboats on the Titanic did not cause it to sink, but it sure as hell raised the body count. The repeal of Glass Steagall had a similar effect. It did not cause the crisis, but lack of a firebreak allowed it to jump easily form Wall Street to Main Street.”

The Center of the Universe » Blog Archive » Bank earnings as a demand leakage


United States

Real Wages Still Below June 2009 Level – Real Time Economics – WSJ

Industrial Output in U.S. Rises by Most in Four Months – Bloomberg

BBC News – US inflation rises to 1.8% in June

As Consumer-Discretionary Stocks Surge, Bears Lurk –

McDonalds Tells Workers to Toil 70 Hours a Week, Use Ripoff Payroll Cards as Part of “Financial Literacy” « naked capitalism

What is the long-term impact of incarcerating juveniles? | vox

Note the chart showing incarceration rates for juveniles across several developed economies. Must-see


Toronto Condo Market in Goldilocks Phase – Canada Real Time – WSJ

Do Canadian banks measure up on leverage? | Financial Post



Euro-Zone Exports Slump in May –

German Exporters Shift Focus to U.S. –

Germany had exported to the periphery before they went into a tailspin. Then they turned to China. Now China is in the doldrums. So it’s on to the US. This won’t work. The export-based model is flawed. Remember, though, this gives the US leverage in the NSA scandal.

Germany Keeps Whistling as Iberia Starts to Burn « naked capitalism

I don’t know what to make of this yet since I have been positive about the forward momentum in the eurozone. On the one hand, Greece is a mess and Portugal is headed that way. On the other hand, I am not a doomsayer and think the eurozone will pull through eventually minus perhaps one or two members. The human toll will be huge.

Inflation reaches 14-month high at 2.9pc – Telegraph


Emerging Markets

Bad loans cast long shadow over Indian banks –

Key China liquidity measure falls to one-year low | South China Morning Post

When does a Chinese growth deceleration become a crisis? | FT Alphaville

From last week, but notable



As Its Ratings Slide, The Confessions Of A Recovering CNBC Pundit – Forbes

HEARD ON THE STREET: Leap of Fate for T-Mobile and Dish –

AT&T’s Next phone upgrade plans are a huge ripoff | The Verge

“AT&T’s Next phone upgrade plans are a huge ripoff”

T-Mobile: AT&T’s New Plans Make You Pay For the Same Phone Twice – Ina Fried – Mobile – AllThingsD

How interest in AT&T’s Next plan could boost new and old iPhone sales — Tech News and Analysis

I don’t see how these plans can do anything but pull forward demand but here’s another take that is bullish on Apple where I see black.

Apple predicted to beat market consensus with 29M iPhones shipped in June quarter

Apple’s iPhone dumped by ‘big three’ Russian carriers over subsidies, marketing costs

Smartphone Upgrades Slow as ‘Wow’ Factor Fades –

This is a VERY important trend to note. I have been saying that the number of new smartphone users is slowing, which makes handset makers dependent on the upgrade cycle. Here we see that this upgrade cycle is slowing as well. And that means margin pressure, especially as the new converts are holdouts on feature phones who are price sensitive. Revenue growth in the mobile market has peaked in my view.

Lumia 625 leaks with LTE and Nokia’s biggest screen ever | The Verge

Yahoo’s Revenue Falls Again, Lowers Guidance –

Yahoo trims 2013 sales outlook as CEO Mayer’s effort falters | Reuters

WhatsApp for iPhone moves to $0.99 annual subscription model | The Verge

I don’t have a view on this yet but it is significant that they have moved to a paid (subscription) revenue model – and only on the iPhone.

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