Daily: Android’s standard bearer is the new Samsung’s Galaxy S3

By Edward Harrison On Jun 20, 2012

Daily commentary

Tomorrow, the Samsung Galaxy S III goes on sale. There has been a lot of hubbub about the phone and all of the reviews have been positive. Likely, this will be a monster sales driver for Samsung.

It bears remembering, however, that Apple attempted to block the S3’s launch in the US on the grounds of patent violation. To me, this puts the S3 launch in a different light. It suggests that Apple sees Samsung as a threat, not necessarily because it violated Apple patents but because it is the most successful challenger to Apple’s continued domination of the mobile marketplace. As of this writing, Apple is continuing to launch its blistering attack on Samsung, attempting not just to have Samsung’s mobile phones excluded from the US, but it’s tablets as well.

The authorised Steve Jobs biography let us know that the animus behind this was principle because Jobs believed Android was a rip off of the iPhone and iOS. Yet, clearly, with the troubles we see at Nokia and Research in Motion, there is something more to Apple’s attempts at savaging its mobile rivals with a blanket of lawsuits.

If you recall the Mac – PC lawsuits from a prior generation in which Apple claimed that Windows was a knock-off of the Macintosh operating system’s look and feel, Apple lost those battles and almost went out of business. The new Apple learned from those skirmishes and has used the patent system effectively in lawyering up to protect the ‘look and feel’ of its successful iOS and iPhone platform.

Will it work though? I say no. Apple’s approach is intrinsically closed, meaning they are a single hardware and software manufacturer in a large ecosystem. Eventually that leads to market share and profit erosion. However, as we have seen, you can earn a shed load of money in the interim. As I have been saying, Apple’s market share has eroded but mobile platform growth is so robust it doesn’t matter. I believe the platform’s growth dynamics have changed enough this year that it does matter and this will be a challenge to Apple’s profit growth. The Samsung Galaxy S3 will be a big part of this.

Links commentary

The Fed: Tim Duy’s take on the Fed is astute and I recommend you read it. That’s the second link down. I have a different take because I am not enamoured of monetary policy. I was on BNN just after the rate decision and I said that it won’t matter because Operation Twist is small beer. Monetary policy is largely irrelevant at this point in my view. Yet, the Fed had to be seen as doing something because people really think the Fed matters. I will have more to say about this later.

Greece: The first link down shows you that the Greek government will form with the bailout parties coming together. I believe their negotiating position is weak and so we are going to see a renegotiated package that does not depart significantly from what we have seen already. Can Greece handle it – meaning will Greece meet these new targets and will its social fabric hold to permit it to do so? I am not optimistic. It is certainly possible but we have to remember that deflationary responses in Spain, Italy and elsewhere will also have a negative drag on Greece. Even the Irish are probably not going to be able to escape another bailout. So, the situation looks pretty bleak in my view.

Spain: If you can’t read Spanish, I’ll point out a few links on Spain here that basically show a lot of politicking and finger-pointing between Germany and Spain. The Spanish government is saying they are not being bailed out while the opposition PSOE and Germany’s Merkel are saying they are. Of course Spain is being bailed out and likely this bailout won’t be the last. I will have more to say about this later but my view is that only the ECB can put liquidity crises in the euro zone to rest and I have not heard where the ECB is involved in Spain’s bailout.

Germany: There was a Gallup poll in Germany focussing on the lingering divisions between west and east that I also want to point out. While the East/West divide was the focus, what caught my eye as a Germany-watcher is the percentage of people in Germany who said they are struggling or suffering economically. What most people don’t realise given Germany’s relatively robust growth figures is how much the middle and lower-middle classes have suffered during the period of stagnating wage growth in Germany. And these are the same people being asked to ‘bail out’ others. it won’t fly. And this is Merkel’s problem domestically. This is why Merkel has to be so tough. Another reason to think Europe will be a problem for a long time to come.

That’s it. here are the links.

Antonis Samaras appointed Greece’s prime minister | World news | The Guardian

Twist It Is – Tim Duy’s Fed Watch

The Merest Thought of Money Replenishes Self-Control — PsyBlog

Julian Assange: Ecuadorean embassy extends ‘generous welcome’ to WikiLeaks founder – Telegraph

"Suffering" in Germany Twice as High in East as in West

Fed doves ready to act | Gavyn Davies

Mortgage rates set to tumble as banks’ borrowing rates fall to a record low – Telegraph

Yes, Barack Obama Thinks We’re Stupid (Immigration Edition) « naked capitalism

Where Are the Foreclosure Deal Millions Going in Your State? – ProPublica

States using robo-signing funds to plug budget gaps | Inman News

Montoro: ‘España no ha sido rescatada porque no necesita ser rescatada’ – ABC.es