Links on Economic Outlook, Canadian Debt Party and More

My general take on the economic outlook is more bullish of late. I believe the data are surprising to the upside now so much that you can forget about a real economy-based double dip. This is also a major reason bonds are getting whacked. Global economic weakness is now fully concentrated in the US housing sector and the European sovereign debt crisis. My expectation is that only a very large exogenous shock which brings these crises to a flash point would create a double dip in 2011, my previous baseline. To date, we have navigated through this recovery without the policy choices that would have led to double dip. So, a multi-year recovery seems to be in the offing. Nevertheless, the underlying fundamentals in the developed economies are weak, meaning that the debt problems will swamp the cyclical upturn at the first sign of economic weakness.

Below are three views on the economic outlook in the US, globally, and in India plus the rest of the links.

2011 Economic Outlook

Credit Writedowns

Credit Crisis

The Usual Fare

Tech Stuff and Other Links

  1. Lora Loretta says

    What are your thoughts on John Hussman’s column for this week?

  2. Edward Harrison says

    Lora, I have yet to read John’s column. But I will now. Cheers.

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