Fed QEII: $600 bln over Next 8 Months (Anti-climatic?)
The dollar has sold off on the news that the Federal Reserve will buy $600 bln of Treasuries over the next 8 months. It will relax its 35% self-imposed limited per security. This is in addition to the $35 bln per month it anticipated form the mortgage securities maturing. Its economic assessment and inflation assessments appear little changed.
The quick take away is that the Fed’s statement and action is largely in line with expectations and although it is hard to call this anti-climatic, the initial price action has been largely reversed.
The Fed’s focus still seems to be on inflation moving in the wrong direction and this is what investors will have to monitor going forward.
Our general view remains that as the uncertainty surrounding the trajectory of US fiscal and monetary policy is lifted the dollar may perform better. Short-term rates are little changed and the long-end–the 30-year has sold off and the 10-year note has slipped a bit as well.
Good post. Is Bernake is a better poker player than given credit? . When your biggest customer says I no longer want to buy what you sell, who blinks first? I wonder what happens if the FED actually buys little to nothing? Which trading partners can support themselves? How long do these “account surplus’ ” last if there is no local demand? Is it war or poker?