Links: 2009-06-04

I am on the road, so posting will be a bit light today.  Expect a post on jobless claims at a minimum.

• Rosenberg’s VooDoo Lounge Tour Continues – Tyler Durden

  Very good CNBC appearance by Rosenberg. This is a 0-minute piece in 3 parts. Very nice conversation

• The catastrophe discount – Sam Jones, FT Alphaville

  Bank stocks are revived! “As evidenced by the subsequent performance of Goldman Sachs’ and Barclays’ shares, that whole Lehman world-is-ending thing never happened. Then again, there is no recovery (yet) for BofA or Citi.”

• Secular bull in commodities remains intact – Prieur de Plessis

  “My research concurs with Rosenberg’s conclusion that commodities still seem to be in a supercycle that was only temporarily interrupted by the global economic malaise. As inflation money finds its way into commodities, it is still not too late to purchase these, but only on price corrections that are bound to occur from time to time”

• Why Didn’t Nassim Taleb Make Money After 9/11? – Joe Weisenthal

  “Fine, maybe Taleb’s just an ideas guy and doesn’t want to talk about returns, or he thinks that things like “money” and details are just a distraction. But he obviously is willing to attach his brand to funds, while slamming others when they lose money, so we think it’s all fair game.”

• Latvian bond failure begins – FT Alphaville

  Latvia looks like it is having funding problems and this is killing Eastern European currencies. As I said preiously, a strong Euro and Swiss Franc are death for these countries, but that is what i happening.

• FT.com, Wolfgang Munchau – Timing is everything

  “Ms Merkel, who has persistently underestimated the extent of this crisis, has reached the inevitable point where complacency gives way to panic. She is presiding over one of the world’s sickest banking sectors. German economic growth will shrink by some 5-6 per cent of gross domestic product this year. And even now, Germany’s policy establishment is frightened about rising budget deficits and inflation.”

• Phoenix Bears the Brunt of Hotel Market’s Steep Downturn – WSJ

  “For the past two years, Phoenix has wrestled with the fallout from the most severe housing bust in decades. Now comes the hotel bust. Since January, when the luxury W Scottsdale Hotel & Residences received a notice of foreclosure related to a $73 million construction loan just a few months after it opened its doors, the list of troubled hotel properties in Phoenix has continued to grow.”

• Fiscal options for the UK: sovereign insolvency, inflation or serious fiscal pain – Willem Buiter

  Willem Buiter thinks the UK’s fiscal options are severely limited. He has been talking about this for quite some time. I would also add that I believe he has had similar to say about the U.S.

• Which Industries Are Most Vulnerable to Consumer Shift? – Real Time Economics

  “It would take consumers 1.3 years to pay down existing debt with their current after-tax income, provided they spent that income on absolutely nothing else,” Jarvis and MacMillan write. “That means no purchases of clothes, food, coffee at Starbucks, or anything else for 16 months.”

• Ausweg aus Maastricht – zeitenwende.ch

  It looks as bad in the EUregarding fiscal deficits as it does in the U.S.

• U.S. planned layoffs fall to lowest in 8 months

  “Planned job cuts announced by U.S. employers totaled 111,182 in May, down 16 percent from the 132,590 layoffs recorded the previous month, according to a report released on Wednesday by global outplacement consultancy Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Inc.”

• Latvian Blondes Hold March To Lift Nation’s Economy – Business Insider

  This is classic: “We’re not sure what they’re saying, but our guess is that it has something to do with global reflation.”