Links: 2008-12-16: the deflation edition

By Edward Harrison On Dec 16, 2008

Given the Fed’s dramatic cut to a Zero Interest Rate Policy (ZIRP) and a verbal commitment to quantitative easing, I wanted to change things a little for this round-up. I am going to link out to myself by going back in the archives and fishing out to see what I actually said about inflation and deflation over the last 8-9 months.

In my own head, I would say I have been saying all along that the real threat is deflation, especially debt deflation. At a minimum, it was a useful exercise to go back and see what I said to keep me honest. I felt that inflation was spiraling out of control due to easy money early in the year. This would only make the landing that much harder. Deflation would result.

It seems consistent to me. But, I could be totally full of it. You be the judge. Here’s what I wrote in chronological order below.

One note: my predictions from July in the post “Ten Predictions for 2008” were on the money but wildly understated how quickly things would fall apart. Most of the posts on the inflation-deflation debate were from the summer. Since Lehman went bust, the deflation scenario has become ever more likely.

Is the Fed reckless? – 25 Mar 2008

Inflation is here to stay – 9 May 2008

The Fed is on the easy money trip – 22 May 2008

Forget Inflation, debt deflation is the real threat – 9 Jun 2008

Is the Fed going to raise rates? – 13 Jun 2008

Bernanke is responsible for the market meltdown – 27 Jun 2008

Inflation or deflation? – 30 Jun 2008

BIS warns of worsening credit crisis and deflation – 30 Jun 2008

Will the ECB incite the Armageddon scenario? – 3 Jul 2008

The inflation-deflation debate – 21 Jul 2008

Ten predictions for 2008 – 28 Jul 2008

Random musing: 9 Aug 2008 – inflation – 9 Aug 2008