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Regardless of what happens in NAFTA, we are going to see the Trump Administration put its 'America First' trade policy in play. Likely within the month, tariffs are coming.

Rising inflation expectations are pushing interest rates higher. But Fed moves matter more. If the data continue to show growth in the economy, markets will move toward the Fed and interest rates will rise.

Fear political populism and the loss of democracy but embrace economic populism as necessary.

Yesterday’s market meltdown - and today's reaction - reduces the risk that the Fed will over-tighten, taking froth out of an over-extended market.

Walmarts plan to raise the minimum pay for some employees to $11 an hour is big news. I also think this is good news for Trump and the Republicans as well as for wage rates in the US.

Why would I be writing about ‘danger’ when we are experiencing the first synchronized global economic upturn in over 8 years? It’s the business cycle.

I see that Dartmouth economics professor Danny Blanchflower is talking about slack in the US labour market because he believes the Fed is premature in assessing its full employment mandate as fulfilled. I have a few thoughts on this issue I…

This is a brief follow-up on the last post I wrote about how markets aren’t freaking out about the Trump scandals. I wrote that "this is only one day. What is happening with Trump – while negative - will not change the arc of the US economy…

This morning, the Trump Administration called the leaders of Canada and Mexico to tell them that he "agreed not to terminate NAFTA at this time," showing, yet again, that Donald Trump is much less audacious a President than some expected.…

When the Brexit vote first happened, I indicated that I didn’t see the huge risk to the UK that others did. In fact, I thought the initial tail risks were elsewhere, like the Italian banking system. The economic risks for the UK were always…