United States

I wrote a note regarding the Q1 2009 GDP report which mentioned that the price deflator showed a large pick up in actual inflation. While I don't think we are off to the races immediately, I do see inflation as a medium-term threat and this…

I have done my part over the past few weeks to write that I thought jobless claims signaled the potential for recovery. I started the drumbeat in late March. Here are the posts:

The U.S. GDP report for the first quarter of 2009 was pretty awful.  GDP came in much worse than expected at an annualized  -6.1% below Q4.  Here are a few data points (all referencing real GDP data): The numbers were much worse than…

The following is a worthy analysis from Marc Chandler of Brown Brothers Harriman regarding the recent GDP numbers released in the U.S. and their significance for currencies (emphasis mine): The initial reading of the US Q1 GDP was worse…

Real U.S. GDP declined at an annualized 6.1% in the first quarter (Jan-Mar) of 2009. This almost exactly matches the 6.3% decline in Q4 and is a MUCH larger decline than expected. While I have not crunched all the numbers yet, I am…

This is a bombshell from the political world. I believe that means Al Franken will make Obama filibuster-proof. Obviously, this is very bad news for Republicans. I suspect that the deal is that Rendell and Casey will pull out ALL the…

You might find some analysts looking for some green shoots in the just released Case-Shiller Home Price Index.  For instance, the year-on-year change in house prices showed a slower decline in the latest month (February) than in the…

This is from the Globe & Mail: Bank of Canada Governor Mark Carney is signalling frustration with the Obama administration's handling of the financial crisis, saying delays in shoring up the banking system in the United States have…

China is really looking at a lot of other options to get away from the U.S. dollar. The latest report is that it has been building huge gold reserves. There is no doubt that China wants to get out and away from the U.S. dollar now. We…

Initial jobless claims came in above 600,000 for the 12th straight week at 640,000. Continuing claims came in at a record 6.1 million, up 3 million from this time last year. Both of these numbers suggest a very weak market and you can bet…