United States

The economic data out of the US and Spain yesterday were very good and support the idea that both of these economies are seeing recoveries that are accelerating. Some thoughts on the data below

I am not impressed with macro policy that is managed purely to give a cyclical boost to the economy at the expense of secular sustainability. That makes it hard to look at what’s happening with macro policy now without scepticism and…

After a number of years of stall speed growth, the US economy seems to be breaking out, even as the Fed has turned toward a tightening bias. As this cycle continues, we should not underestimate the ability of the US economy to continue…

Despite my concern over releveraging and increased household debt in the face of low wage growth, I believe the cyclical recovery in the US will remain intact for some time to come. The latest jobless claims numbers give a further boost to…

The economic and business paradigm in place in the United States is predicated on a secular increase in household debt that I believe will not last through another cyclical downturn without serious deleveraging. The reason we saw…

Today’s post is a potpourri of events I am seeing from around the world that impinge on macro. Europe. As expected, European consumer price inflation came in at 0.5% following the unexpected dip in German inflation. I believe the ECB will…

Money supply and LEI in the US are pointing down Fed hawkishness is increasing Credit excesses continue in high yield

US GDP fell 1.0% in Q1 2014 according to the revised estimate released by the the US Bureau of Economic Analysis. A sharp downward revision was expected but this revision was unusually sharp and calls into question the continuing meme that…

I’m back after the long weekend here in the US with a short post. Having pointed to the excesses in US credit markets on Friday, I should point out that the real economy in the US is doing pretty well at the moment. Markets can continue to…

Europe’s PMI show a divergence between Germany and France China’s manufacturing sector is still contracting The US student debt problem is growing