trade

It seems like just a week ago, we were talking about synchronized global growth. Suddenly signs of deceleration are everywhere. And bond markets are feeling it. I don't see the economy falling out of bed though, barring an exogenous shock.…

The big news today is Donald Trump's sacking of his Secretary of State Rex Tillerson. Is the confrontational path that Donald Trump is choosing a precursor to an economic shock? Irrespective, I expect elevated volatility to remain a feature…

People are now talking about a trade war. But How will Trump implement his tariff plan? Who will the targets be? How will they respond? What will the economic and political ramifications be? We simply don't know. There will be great…

The announcement of the US intention to impose tariffs on imported steel and aluminum on national security grounds has sent ripples through the capital markets.

A speech by Lael Brainard on economic headwinds turning to tailwinds suggests a regime shift is at hand at the Fed. Meanwhile, US President Trump is expected to announce tariffs on steel and aluminum. Mexico has already said it would…

Regardless of what happens in NAFTA, we are going to see the Trump Administration put its 'America First' trade policy in play. Likely within the month, tariffs are coming.

The position I have stressed is one that is counter to the bond bear market narrative. But, that is longer-term. Shorter-term dynamics are bond bearish.

What Angela Merkel was doing this past weekend when she spoke of the need for Europe to “take our fate into our own hands” was using an international issue for domestic purposes.

This morning, the Trump Administration called the leaders of Canada and Mexico to tell them that he "agreed not to terminate NAFTA at this time," showing, yet again, that Donald Trump is much less audacious a President than some expected.…

Donald Trump is a very media-centric public figure. And because the chatter in DC now is of Trump as a legislative failure during his first hundred days in office, Trump needs a win - and Canada is an easy target. Here’s why.