technical analysis

It’s kind of useless, in our opinion, to be looking at the technicals as the market approaches the big life or death event. The EU debt plan is either going to be taken positively, in which case the S&P500 will break through the…

Dollar moves broadly higher after risk rally ran out of steam; European stocks slide from 2-month high. Extreme market positioning, technicals and positive macro data enabled unwind of safe haven bets. South Korea’s central banks keeps…

Just a few moments ago I posted on the fact that the US is officially in bear market territory. On Twitter, I said that “in Fall 2008, 10-year yields went to extreme lows and then the liquidity train went into overdrive. Stocks rallied,…

One defining characteristic of the current market is time compression. What used to take weeks and months now happens in hours, if not seconds. It’s gotta be the robots and algo trading, no? Do you feel a little like the modern day version…

Gold’s 30 percent parabolic move from July 1 to September 6 is beginning to falter. Maybe the yellow metal is just out of gas and needs to consolidate a little or maybe it’s something bigger, such as the liquidity issues in the European…

Our post of August 22nd, S&P500 Faces a Fork in the Road, noted the S&P500 faced a fork in the road. One path, the 2010 bullish trajectory bolstered by Jackson Hole; the other, the bearish 2008 trajectory, the result of, say, a…

After posting the W bottoms on the S&P500 and the Brazil ETF here is our favorite, the Korea ETF (EWY). We learned during the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis never to short Korea and never underestimate the resolve of the Korean people.

Not the classic trajectory and confirmation, not to mention the compressed time frame, but you’ve got to respect the price action. The macro swans are still out, so the question is are they priced? We don’t know and not willing to make a…

The S&P has gone from 2 standard deviations below the 20-day moving average on the 16th June to 2 standard deviations above it now, something it did prior to the 87 crash when it rallied 6.4% in the week prior to the crash. It has been…

The mitigating factors are the recent manufacturing data and the pickup in small business credit. I especially like to see small business with access to and take up of credit because that could mean renewed hiring. The jobless claims…