speculation

A lot of Chinese SOEs are involved in a very wide variety of business activities, and are especially fond of activities in which cheap capital is the comparative advantage, or in which there is political advantage to be gained. That makes…

Andy Lees argues insufficient dollars are getting into the system from the US current account deficit to finance the growth in global trade, so the stock of these international dollars is falling relative to the value of world trade. He…

Last week, when discussing what QE3 could look like I indicated that were the Federal Reserve to start expanding its balance sheet, QE3 will see interest rate caps after a pause and period of reflection. Let me address the differences…

Below are extracts of a paper formulated by Thomas Hoenig, the President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, to better regulate the US Financial sector. His overarching aim is to isolate core banking activities that are protected by…

In the case of bailing out Wall Street – and thereby the wealthiest 1% of Americans – while saying there is no money for Social Security, Medicare or long-term public social spending and infrastructure investment, the beneficiaries are…

I am more cautious than optimistic on risk assets and the global economy. From where I sit global growth prospects are not improving; they are weakening.

What is driving the increase in the RMB-denominated trade is probably not any preference to transact in RMB but rather speculative demand for RMB. That sounds pretty plausible.

So, the Fed has basically just announced it will stop QE2. It will then start selling Treasuries. And remember, this is at the same time the Treasury is selling $10 billion a month in mortgage securities. Only after this will rates be…

You have strong growth in emerging markets offset by weaker growth in the developed economies. Who wins this battle? For now, EM is winning and that is bullish for commodities over the near-term.

(Hat tip Business Insider for the video and Conor Sen for the connection). Gee Wally, I wonder if speculation had anything to do with it.