Spain

Today is the time to update you on how my 2014 surprises are faring and why. Just to remind you, the surprise list is based on Byron Wien’s list of ten surprises which he has been conducting for the last thirty years. Surprises are events…

I am back from my summer holiday. There has been a lot of news in the time since I last posted. And the news flow is coming from a lot of different places. So, let me start up again with a post highlighting what I think are some of the key…

The economic data out of the US and Spain yesterday were very good and support the idea that both of these economies are seeing recoveries that are accelerating. Some thoughts on the data below

Markit's June Manufacturing PMIs for the Eurozone came out this morning. And overall, the numbers showed less strength across the board, with France showing particular weakness. You can see that Spain and Ireland were doing well though.…

Today’s post is a potpourri of events I am seeing from around the world that impinge on macro. Europe. As expected, European consumer price inflation came in at 0.5% following the unexpected dip in German inflation. I believe the ECB will…

The European data out today were not particularly good. We saw a deceleration in the eurozone economy, that when combined with the deceleration in German inflation, suggests that deflationary forces could still threaten a debt deflationary…

By Michael Pettis It might seem almost churlish to wonder what would happen if Spain were to leave the euro. The official European position is that the battle of the euro has been pretty much won, and anyone who argues otherwise will be…

Today, rather than write to a single theme, I am going to highlight a number of stories that I have seen over the past few days that I think are important. Spain. Bad debts in Spain are now declining ever so slightly. The latest data for…

It is about time I updated you on how the ten surprises for 2014 are faring. I actually have 14 but I only get credit on the first ten. The second ten are a bonus round. I am defining my surprises as events to which investors assign 1-in-3…

Themes for today Emerging market political risk is now front and center. US data suggests consumption growth is vulnerable to poor wage trends. The European periphery banks are benefitting from lower sovereign yields. The potential…