sovereignty

As the US government shutdown continues, the risk of default grows. Below are some thoughts on why this has played out as it has and what the outcome may be.

Abenomics has been very successful in goosing the Japanese economy thus far. However, the question remains whether this success will be short-lived or durable. I believe it is likely to be short-lived because of the policy constraints that…

In the links today, the biggest threads outside of the NSA scandal were on Greece and Europe. I believe the economy there is bottoming and I want to discuss some of the news flow. There was also a rate decision by the Japanese central bank…

The reality of course, is that euro zone governments do have to worry about losing market favour. They cannot rely on the central bank as a debt buyer of last resort the way the Japanese, the British or the Americans can. If, for whatever…

I was on the Daily Ticker with Lauren Lyster talking about Japan yesterday. My view is that there is no material negative change in Japan's sovereign debt outlook nor will there be in the medium term because of Abenomics. The video is at…

This is a good interview with Kyle Bass because it cuts to the heart of the matter. If you are a partisan in the Bass debate on Japan, you can see him as being either correct or incorrect. Now, I have covered this before and I have stressed…

For domestic investors, the safe haven asset class are government liabilities if the government has substantially all liabilities in the currency it creates. For foreign investors, like domestic investors, you want to protect against…

The financial crisis has reduced the ranks of countries with pristine macro fundamentals. Thus, the availability of safe assets has declined precipitously. Investors in a bind where they have funds to invest but a limited number of options,…

The key to Spain's turning the corner as 2013 begins is the housing market. This takes on increasing importance given the reprieve in crisis interest rates. House prices are still falling and the economy is contracting despite the…

The French housing market transaction volume declined by 25% last year, according to Century21. The fall in the French housing market is just beginning. And given the macro problems in France and the previous run up in house prices, the…