sovereign debt crisis

Dollar broadly firmer as decision on Greece is delayed until July, Stocks and oil under pressure. Global markets this week are likely to be dominated again by developments in Greece; EUR near 1.42. Beyond Greece markets are also likely to…

The primary difference for Euroland to sovereign issuers is that the Euro can only be created by the ECB – it is the issuer of the currency. The governments of Ireland, Greece, Spain, Germany, etc. are the USERS of the currency. The…

Dollar, yen and Swiss franc are trading firmer; US data today to take back seat to Greek drama. Contagion spreading as Spain auction was weak, 10-year yield at record highs. EM to remain under pressure as spillover from Greece uncertainty…

I still believe the political price for a breakup is large but the chances of one are increasing because the policy decisions that governments and the EU are making cannot be maintained politically in the periphery or in the core. Unless we…

While I acknowledge the real fears that central bankers have about the impact of a restructuring, this political dithering is making matters considerably worse. Clearly, burden sharing is needed and that means bondholders will have to take…

The US dollar, yen and Swiss franc are trading firmer as the impasse on the new Greek aid package unnerved traders ahead of the next IMF tranche due later on in the month

The German court adds another element of uncertainty in the debt drama and may shape the particular outcome. There is some danger that parliament's prerogatives are defined to include the upper house as well and there Merkel does not enjoy…

In my view, a CDS trigger could be a Lehman-style event, yes. Moreover, only a hard restructuring – meaning principal reduction would actually have any meaningful impact on peripheral CDS or interest rates. So, I expect the euro zone…

Point for point, I agree with the commentary from Felix Zulauf in this week’s Barron’s mid-year roundtable discussion. For long-time Credit Writedowns readers, you will recognize almost every one of these points from previous posts. It is…

On balance it would then seem that the consensus remains weighed towards no QE3 either because it is not needed or because it does not work in the first place. I think it is very simple in the end though. If sideways movement gives way to a…