sovereign debt crisis

The question is not whether Greece will default but what will happen once it has. If Greece defaults but stays in the euro, not only will it not solve the underlying lack of competitiveness, but markets will immediately turn their attention…

Investors should consider monitoring the euro's risk reversals to compliment the analysis of spot. The current reading suggests the market less comfortable with long euro exposure than the relative resilience in the spot market would seem…

Moody's has "heightened concerns that Portugal will not be able to fully achieve the deficit reduction and debt stabilisation targets". They conclude that will result in "growing risk that Portugal will require a second round of official…

Most analysts agree that Greece is insolvent. This column argues that the issue is whether Greece’s troubles are contagious.

We have been closely monitoring the firewall that has appeared to protect Spain from the other Portugal (Ireland and Greece). Recent developments appear to be weakening that firewall and pressure is mounting on Italy now as well. It is…

Dollar is broadly firmer for the second day on euro zone periphery issues; China hikes rates by 25bp. Safe havens are bid again as downgrade of Portugal fuels concerns over status of Ireland’s rating. Brazil Finance Minister Mantega…

Dollar is broadly stronger amid concerns over Greek debt rating, China tightening; stocks mixed. S&P warns plan for Greece is likely default; ECB to accept collateral unless all agencies rule default. RBA on hold, Riksbank hikes by…

What follows is simply a follow-up note to my earlier (Elephant in The Euro Room) piece on Italy. The decision by S&P to put Italian sovereign debt on negative outlook, and the subsequent announcement by Moody’s that it was considering…

Evangelos Venizelos is dispatched to consider how to prevent the government from sacking tens of thousands of workers in order to prevent the Greek from defaulting on its debt. He suggests that California’s previous IOU issuance is a model…

Now obviously, there are the issues of efficiency and fairness to think about. However, I want to look at this from a pure forecasting perspective. and stick to the tack I began in October 2010 with “Less Policy Advocacy and More Policy…