sovereign debt crisis

I continue to predict that Europe will move to change its constitution to include greater fiscal integration but also include explicit mechanisms for countries to leave the euro area.

European stocks, Italian bonds and the euro are rebounding after Italy’s BTP auction and ECB containment strategy. European political uncertainty remains dominant driver; Australia employment better than expected. Bank of Indonesia…

Since everyone is talking about sovereign deficits, austerity and the ECB’s duties and legal limitations, let’s go straight to the Lisbon Treaty text. Below are the most relevant parts of the Lisbon Treaty governing how the EU is supposed…

I have been saying for some time that the euro zone is coming apart at the seams. This makes a lot of sense. The question is how to do it. Here’s my suggestion from a few days ago.

We are experiencing a European bond market crash. There’s not much time left. Make your trades now because a policy response is imminent; I’m thinking by Monday morning.

The scale of the Italian challenge is far greater than Greece's as Italy's sovereign debt is bigger than Greece, Ireland, Spain and Portugal's put together. Greece has, prior to the coming haircuts, about 350 bln euros of debt. Italy has to…

You saw my comments in the last post on the damage Europe has done in making a mockery of the sovereign CDS market. The Italy situation is worse because of this. Below is a video clip from Monday night of the Lang & O’Leary Exchange, a…

Right now everyone is looking at monetisation and thinking this will save the day. You saw the Lakshman Achuthan video; clearly punters don’t think the US is going to double dip. Buy gold then. Maybe they are right, but I see weakness…

"If a country isn’t growing, it’s debt is growing as a result. So, any interest beyond, let's say 2.5%, is a problem. And with Italy's growth shrinking, as a result of the austerity measures they're putting in place, we're beyond it.…

If you are still inclined to give Greece the benefit of the doubt, I suggest you study the works of Egan-Jones, a credit rating company located in Haverford, Pennsylvania. Contrary to most other rating companies, Egan-Jones does not receive…