Russia

I have a lot of threads to cover today. So let’s get right into it. New home sales. I want to start in the US first because the macro data backdrop is good. The first piece of data here is actually a bit soft and says that residential…

The bottom line here is that I have been and still am bullish on the cyclical prospects in the US, UK and Spain in particular. The US jobless claims numbers are unusually low and that tells you that slack in the labour market is declining.…

Russia is signalling de-escalation in Ukraine, at least on economics The mobile battle is moving to India The limited window on Abenomics is closing

Ukraine is at risk of becoming a failed state China’s growth is due to stimulus Japan’s macro figures worsen Microsoft’s strategy is weak Facebook is overvalued

This is a long-form post on Ukraine. The big news, however, is from the European Union where the PMIs and a slew of other economic data came out today. The data showed the European economy improving broadly from its weakened recovery…

Ukraine will have global impact More sanctions are coming but will be somewhat limited The global financial system is moving away from the US US auto subprime is going to blow up

As the war in Ukraine moves to the center of global consciousness, I think it is important to remember the various actors’ positioning, constraints and likely agendas. As much as we would like to know ‘the truth’, the reality is always that…

The geopolitical situation regarding the conflict in Ukraine has escalated considerably due to the downing of a passenger jet from the Netherlands to Malaysia. Given the visceral and gruesome nature of the events now unfolding, domestic…

As I write this, Twitter is going berserk with news of Malaysian Airlines Flight 17 from Amsterdam to Kuala Lumpur with 280 passengers and 15 crew having gone down in Ukrainian airspace. There is video and photo footage of the wreckage. And…

The big news today is the Gazprom deal in China. This is a $400 billion gas deal to supply gas from Russia to China for 30 years that has been in the works for over a decade. But the changing geopolitical atmosphere has given it urgency.…