risk

Earlier today, yields for 10-year bonds in Greece shot up 200 basis points as investors contemplate the risk associated with a potential government transition. European Commission head Jean-Claude Juncker has waded into the domestic…

Last week, the ECB announced that it would begin purchasing securities backed by bank lending to households and firms. Whereas markets and the media have generally greeted this announcement with enthusiasm, this column identifies reasons…

Ukraine will have global impact More sanctions are coming but will be somewhat limited The global financial system is moving away from the US US auto subprime is going to blow up

Money supply and LEI in the US are pointing down Fed hawkishness is increasing Credit excesses continue in high yield

There are widespread signs of credit market froth. This is a telltale sign of top of the cycle or near top of the cycle excess. Think 2005, 2006 or 2007. The key bit here is that credit markets transmit distress in a way that equity markets…

The big news today is the Gazprom deal in China. This is a $400 billion gas deal to supply gas from Russia to China for 30 years that has been in the works for over a decade. But the changing geopolitical atmosphere has given it urgency.…

Expect the ECB to do something in June, but not QE Ukraine is the top geopolitical risk Rotation into defensive names in the US is worrying China is exporting deflation Easy money is causing a reaching for yield

The monthly employment situation summary for April 2014 was released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics. And the headline numbers were terrific. The unemployment rate measured by the household survey fell to a cyclical low of 6.3%, below…

Since 2007, the global economy has been in a near permanent sate of semi-crisis. Forget about Jamie Dimon’s quip to his daughter that a crisis is something that occurs every five years. Start thinking of the global economy as being in a…

Topics for today: Tail risk from Ukraine is increasing, giving rise to investment opportunity Argentina is still a basket case US housing will not add appreciably to a US growth acceleration I think the big news in the markets is…