retail

Most economic analysts are in a bullish frame of mind regarding the outlook for 2014. I believe 2014 will be better than 2013. Nevertheless, there are risks to this optimism, both regarding the real economy and the valuation of shares.…

In spite of some relatively strong economic data coming out of the US, risks to near-term growth remain. One of those risks comes from higher than expected inventory build. We saw this come through in the latest GDP numbers.

A number of indicators seem to point to a relatively weak holiday shopping season in the US. In particular, the Gallup survey index that estimates holiday spending has turned lower. And consumer sentiment peaked this summer and has been…

During the government shutdown, the data for a variety of economic reports were halted. Therefore, I looked at alternative, private sector, data to estimate the government reports. One such model used the historical differential between…

The recent downturns in consumer confidence and spending are likely being exacerbated by the controversy in Washington; but it is clear that the consumer was already feeling the pressure of the surge in interest rates, higher energy and…

The contrast between the US and European auto markets is stark and captures the significant divergence of the two economies. June auto sales in Europe slumped from a year ago to their lowest level since 1996. In June, US auto sales reached…

Amazon, Apple, and Samsung, three of the biggest names in the technology space, have reported this week. In all three cases, there were gaps in the earnings reports and the earnings outlooks. For me, however, Samsung's report was the best…

The core of the issue is not whether the country could see one, or even two, quarters of positive performance, but whether any faltering recovery will be sustained out into the future, through 2014 and beyond. It is here that all the old…

Of all of the elements of the US fiscal cliff, the most damaging from a consumer perspective is likely to be the increase in payroll taxes as it hits a broad swathe of consumers in the middle class. This was confirmed today via the release…

As the winter storm pounded the north eastern United States on Friday, gasoline futures hit another high. The March delivery contract broke $3.06, indicating that retail prices for fuel will be going up.