retail

David Rosenberg was out over the past week with some pretty large numbers supporting the thesis that strategic defaults are driving retail sales. In his daily piece last Friday, he said: To repeat, what has driven consumer spending in…

At the end of last month I proffered three potential explanations for the continued fall in the US savings rate.   The first explanation was that the economy was in a cyclical recovery predicated on asset price inflation and this…

Brazil reported much better than expected Feb retail sales and this is encouraging expectations of a 75 bp rate hike later this month and allowing the real to extend its winning streak for the fifth consecutive session.  The real has…

Why is the US savings rate continuing to fall? Three possibilities: increasing asset prices, debt-related stress, a surge in strategic defaults.

(click pictures for better viewing) It was hard not to sense that part of the IMF's recent inquiry into Germany's economy was also aimed at asking the country to eat a little bit of humble pie in the context of the ongoing difficulties…

We got the data on consumption, savings and income from the U.S. Department of Commerce's Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). What we saw should definitely bolster the view that recovery has taken hold but at the expense of saving. The BEA…

Meredith Whitney was on CNBC in London this morning. She concentrates her comments on mortgages and banking. She sees the winter lull as a harbinger of renewed softness in the housing market. Note: the FOMC statement today reiterated the…

The February US retail sales data was much stronger than expected, even when taking into account the downward revisions in January.  A picture of a broadening of the recovery is emerging.   Looking at the Jan-Fed period…

According to Bundesbank President Axel Weber, Germany’s economic recovery is “essentially intact”, and is now set to benefit from stronger demand in countries outside the euro region. “I firmly believe that the recovery process that…

Initial jobless claims fell 29,000 to a seasonally-adjusted 469,000 from a revised 498,000 the prior week. While the fall is certainly welcome, initial jobless claims remain very high more than two years after the recession began in…