Politics

The probability of a German-led fiscal union in Europe is greater than the consensus suspects given its arguments that only an ECB backstop and a European bond will prevent the end of the greater experiment. In addition, the argument is…

My takeaway from two days in DC is that Europe is headed to a blood in the streets outcome. While ECB funding remains ongoing even as it’s uncertain, in any case, the underlying theme remains austerity. There is no plan B.

The Global Macro Monitor posted several pieces earlier in the year about the Presidential Stock Cycle. The third year of a first term President is the strongest year in the cycle. The table illustrates that if the S&P500 doesn’t close…

When will we begin to reign-in the Fed and hold it accountable? And will we let the Fed bail-out Wall Street without Congressional approval of funding the next time it crashes? We need to answer these questions soon, because it is beginning…

Judge Jed S. Rakoff of the United States District Courts of the Southern District of New York struck a blow against the Securities and Exchange Commission and in support of the "public interest." The Securities and Exchange Commission had…

The McCourtny Consulting Group: We are witnessing a simmering backlash in the face of the widening class distinction. It is wise to address the fundamental issues behind the backlash and consider approaches to deal with the problem,…

An in-depth (and cynical) look at the current political environment in America, from the Occupy Wall Street protesters to the President's reaction to the Republican Primary via Omid Malekan, creator of the Quantitative Easing Explained and…

Editor’s note: the IMF musings would be difficult politically, especially in the US. And any deal for Italy would also have to involve Spain too. However, Perhaps most important, operationally, the ECB lending to the IMF, which then lends…

Boxed in by the ever-worsening sovereign debt crisis, the Franco-German euro zone axis is trying to formulate a policy that both adheres to the German economic orthodoxy without worsening the crisis any further.

As I have been saying at Credit Writedowns, the ECB’s opposition to monetising sovereign debt is not about inflation concerns but rather its resistance to moving into a politicised quasi-fiscal role.