Politics

Summary: I expect the debt ceiling impasse to be overcome today as a result of a Senate-brokered deal. With this manufactured crisis out of the way, we can concentrate on earnings and on the economy. While US growth is on track, I expect…

There is much about the US fiscal melodrama that is a farce. Unlike other debt crises, this one is totally self-inflicted. It is a crisis of choice not necessity. The misconstructions have been repeated so many times that they have taken on…

Summary: According to press accounts, the Senate could vote on a plan to end the government shutdown and avert a default on U.S. government debt as soon as tonight. Nonetheless, we are clearly in the 11th hour and must consider default a…

Summary: Recently, Niall Ferguson reminded us of the eurozone pessimism of 2011 and 2012 in a recent polemic against Paul Krugman. Without getting into the Krugman-Ferguson war, I want to hone in on this subject because I think it tells us…

While data is difficult to come by, there are signs that the sharp drop in consumer confidence since the federal government shutdown (see post) is translating into weaker consumer spending.

As the US government shutdown continues, the risk of default grows. Below are some thoughts on why this has played out as it has and what the outcome may be.

The US dollar is narrowly mixed against major and emerging market currencies. Comments by House Speaker Boehner that he will form a majority bloc to avoid a default by the Federal government is being understood two ways.

Backloaded austerity is the defining paradigm at work in Europe right now. Italian Prime Minister Enrico Letta has called for this paradigm to be bolstered by fiscal stimulus incentives as a quid pro quo for structural reform. I believe he…

It isn't yet clear how long the US government shutdown will last or what impact the shutdown will have. Nor is it clear that the US will escape a debt default down the road. Therefore, at this time all that reigns is uncertainty.

The German election and the US debt ceiling crisis are the two political events dominating the economic headlines - and for good reason; these two events could have potentially big consequences on the regional and global economy. In the…