monetary policy

Bill Fleckenstein was back talking to Dylan Ratigan about the source of rising oil prices. (See the last Fleckenstein video here). Clearly, supply constraints and increased demand in emerging markets play the central role in creating a…

It turns out, according to most interpretations of the SAFE report, that the speculators creating the hot-money inflows are not the much-vilified foreign hedge funds – surprise, surprise – but Chinese businessmen bringing money into the…

The real question is whether the inflation that bondholders are expecting will actually lead to rate rises. Bond vigilantes can sell Treasuries in expectation of future rate hikes. (Remember, long rates are simply a chain of expected…

By Comstock Partners It seems incredible that the Fed is creating the third bubble within 11 years, but that is what is underway. In the late 1990s the Fed kept the pedal on the gas and helped engender the dot-com bubble that collapsed…

You have to watch this video to believe it. The speculation in the commodities market is well out of hand. Cotton futures are at a record high on speculation that demand in China will continue to increase, as China is the world’s largest…

I was on the BBC this morning talking about the Obama FY 2012 budget proposal. Here's what I said and what I think about the proposal so far (If I get the video, I will post). This post will be more about the political tactics and…

By Claus Vistesen One of the main investment and trading themes crystallised during Q4-10 was the move out of emerging markets and into developed markets. As with all themes, it started as a contrarian misfit moving against the truck loads…

Just like in the Quantitative Easing Explained video, this one on the bank bailouts gets down to brass tacks. It strips away all the government propaganda that taxpayers profited from the bailouts by revealing some of the many backdoor…

One serious addendum I made to my 2011 outlook had to do with oil and commodity prices. While I am cautiously optimistic, there are a number of potential pitfalls to a rosy scenario. Here's what I said about oil and commodities:…

Frederick J. Sheehan is the author of Panderer to Power: The Untold Story of How Alan Greenspan Enriched Wall Street and Left a Legacy of Recession (McGraw-Hill, 2009) and "The Coming Collapse of the Municipal Bond…