monetary policy

. If China’s current account surplus declines, there are, very broadly, two ways this can affect the US. On the one hand the surplus can simply be transferred to another country. For example if China’s current account surplus declines…

Here is Omid Malekan back with a video explaining inflation to the layman. You have seen his videos on Bank Bailouts Explained and Quantitative Easing Explained. The QE explained video was especially popular and went viral on the Internet.…

The easy stance of developed economy central banks is driving money into emerging markets and fostering the accommodative stance of those central banks, fearful of more hot money flows or currency appreciation. Easy money in the face of…

China data came in stronger than expected, and supports the view that PBOC is moving behind the curve with its gradualist approach and that it needs to get more aggressive. Q1 11 GDP growth slowed slightly to 9.7% y/y from 9.8% y/y in Q4…

This comes via Market Watch: Moody’s Investors Service on Thursday lowered its view on China’s property sector, warning that a slowdown is underway with credit conditions forecast to tighten over the next 18 months. However, the…

If China does continue to tighten to fight inflation as I also indicated I expect they will, the hard landing scenario is definitely something to consider. Early evidence shows that the property bubble is coming off the boil. But it is…

Roach talks to Bloomberg's Carol Massar about the risks to an economy operating at stall speed as well as Federal Reserve monetary policy and economic lessons from Japan's lost decades. He thinks a recessionary relapse is more likely than…

Victor Shih argues that Chinese FX reserves are vulnerable and that raising real interest rates are key to reducing the potential risk. Video and PDF presentation provided.

What we would like to see is commodity prices falling or stagnating. And that would certainly be the case if demand destruction is already beginning as the IEA analysis suggests. Moreover, QE is ending in June. So that won't be a factor in…

In Peru, populist candidate Ollanta Humala won the most votes in the weekend presidential vote in Peru, winning 29.3% so far with 75% of the ballots counted. By falling far short of the 50% + 1 needed to win, a second round vote will be…