Fed rate hikes, the European economy and the Brazilian slowdown
Finally, Greece is off the table as the big topic. So I have a few topics I want to cover and am going to put them altogether below. Let’s start with the U.S.
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Browsing Tag
monetary policy
The Greek extension disaster
Actually I had intended to write a different post but just now Germany has rejected a letter from Greek finance minister Yanis Varoufakis that looked to extend the Greek bailout program. The German rejection changes the complexion of…
A mental model for understanding policy errors and consistency anchors using the Fed and Greece
One of the great things about markets and economics is that there is a lot of uncertainty built into them because, unlike traditional macroeconomic modelling assumptions, real people are unpredictable and irrational. This makes life…
More analysis on the situation in Greece, Denmark and North America
Just following up on yesterday’s post, I want to go into further detail regarding two situations in Europe and pivot to a Canadian-centric look at North America. ALl of these threads won’t tie together but I will see what I can do to bring…
Potential deal in Greece, Speculation on Danish peg and US interest rates
No story is really dominating headlines today. So I thought it would be a good time to look around at a number of different topics I have written on in the past. Of course, Greece is still the biggest issue but it is optimism today instead…
US economic data pointing up, bolstering Fed tightening bias
On Friday, the US jobs data showed that the US real economy is weathering the oil price decline very well as oil sector jobs account for little in the overall economy. Despite the capital expenditure effect on future growth, the US economy…
ECB ends Greek collateral waiver, ELA still available, Greek options limited
Last night the European Central Bank announced that it would no longer accept Greek government or Greek government-guaranteed collateral for loans. This step had been telegraphed for a month but the timing demonstrates how political an…
Revisiting Greek negotiating positions and more comments on capex and interest rates
This post will be a brief revisiting of three recent topics - Greece, oil capex, and Anglo-Saxon bond yields - due to recent news. The recent news reinforces my position regarding the potential for a deal in Greece. On capex reduction, the…
Why quantitative easing and negative interest rates will fail
This is going to be a short thought piece. But the takeaway should be that the convergence to zero will continue unabated as the threat of inflation is muted given the combination of excess capacity, high private debt and unfavourable…
The convergence to zero continues, favouring Anglo-Saxon government bonds
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is now signalling rate cuts are possible, coming out of its last policy meeting. Its 10-yr bonds have the highest yield of all developed economy major Central Banks. Meanwhile the US Federal Reserve’s last…