liquidity

Collapsing credit demand ultimately leads to a loss of banking capital, which is the exact opposite of what the LTRO program was set up to achieve. Interestingly, as the charts below show, banks seem to think that there will be a slowing of…

In last week's weekly newsletter, I explained why Spain was in big trouble. Today I want to present the full context euro zone-wide and why there will be more sovereign defaults to come in the euro zone. This will be a very comprehensive…

I thought I'd point out that the already severely undercapitalised Spanish banking system is being crushed by the spike in Spanish sovereign yields. I continue to expect Europe to continue the extend and pretend approach, creating…

In recent days, policy makers have been most noticeable by their absence. This absence has weakened their credibility and encouraging speculative attention. This is true for Switzerland, Europe and Japan.

The LTRO's provided more than 1 trillion euros of liquidity. An under-appreciated aspect of the virtuous cycle, was the bank balance sheets improved not just because of cheaper cost of capital, but because there was a significant rally in…

The German 2-year note has dropped below Japan's for the first time ever, with the German 2-year note yielding 0.109%, a record low. Japan's 2-year note yield is 0.111%. Meanwhile, the 10-year bund is at 1.638%, nearing the record low of…

This week's weekly commentary on markets and the economy features Spain. In my view, the potential for downside economic and portfolio risk has increased markedly as we realise that Spain is at risk and there is no plan B in the euro zone.…

The three-year loans will carry an interest rate initially of the benchmark rate of 70 bp.

The LTROs may have helped ease this year's roll-over risk (Spain has met almost 50% of this year's refinancing needs). But they have not substantially altered the market's views of the risks of an eventual restructuring.

Here is a video of my latest appearance on Capital Account with Lauren Lyster. We spoke specifically about the situation in Europe; and that means Greece in the first instance. We also talked a lot about the ECB's LTRO program which I see…