liquidity

Last week we witnessed a flight to quality within the euro zone government bond market. The yield on 10-year German government bonds dropped a record 35 points last week. They now yield 1.82 percent. Meanwhile, the yield on 10-year Italian…

So what is the trade? If Italy continues to blow out and a big bazooka EFSF bailout fund is not attainable, the EU will be faced with certain death or massive ECB bond purchases. We think they will choose the later, which makes the Euro a…

Harvard Economist Kenneth Rogoff has a post up at Project Syndicate which does a good job in laying out the conundrum that Europe faces in the sovereign debt crisis. He theme is exchange rates and currency revulsion. But the underlying…

Liquidity crises are always solvency crises. The question is about determining which company, nation, or debtor is insolvent in a world of incomplete information. This leads to panic and a wider liquidity crisis that stresses the balance…

10-year Italian paper now trades at 6.17% and is poised to break through highs set in August. While the ECB and European leaders recognise that the ECB is the difference here, they are as yet unwilling to have the ECB declare itself…

Here's Roger Bootle talking to Bloomberg's Maryam Nemazee about the deal hammered out yesterday to 'save Greece.' He is quite sceptical. First, the 120% debt to GDP figure that the deal is predicated on reaching is still high and assumes a…

Are these haircuts on Greek debt really such a good idea? Or are they really just a stopgap that will make things all the worse in the long-run? Sure, Mr. Market seems to think they’re fantastic. But then, Mr. Market has always been…

Let’s not get bogged down in numbers. The EFSF could have 440 billion euros behind, 1 trillion, 2 trillion, even 10 trillion euros, but it all comes back to the funding sources. The French are right: it makes no sense to implement this…

This is an update of a post I wrote at the beginning of September about European political dysfunction.

Nicholas Sarkozy has some sharp words about the crisis.